The weather is going to play a key role in the outcome of tomorrow’s big race, the Coral Gold Cup (Newbury, 2.50 p.m.). To start with, the cold snap might even claim the card altogether with a course inspection due at 7.30 a.m. on race day. Secondly, after little rain over the past fortnight, the going is likely to be ‘good to soft’ or quicker when the frost covers come off and horses that prefer decent ground will be favoured.
The top three horses in the market – Monbeg Genius, Complete Unknown and Mahler Mission – all look well-handicapped, particularly the former on his run in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, all three horses would also be happier with more cut in the ground.
I put up Mahler Mission for the race a week ago, with the only major negative now being the form of his trainer, John McConnell, who has not had a winner over jumps for 51 days and 41 runs. In the last fortnight alone, none of his 34 runners has won.
In contrast, fellow Irish handler Gavin Cromwell has his string in fine form with eight winners from his last 40 runners over the past two weeks at a strike rate of 20 per cent. He has also had plenty of successful raids over the Irish Sea this autumn and so I am going to put up his horse STUMPTOWN as a second tip in the race.
This gelding is only six years old, having already run over chases at the Cheltenham Festival when he was a close second in this year’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup on ground much softer than he ideally likes.
True, he races off a mark 8 lbs higher in the ratings tomorrow but, with a clear round, I expect him to run a big race off just 10 stones 2 lbs and with ground conditions in his favour. Back him each way at 9-1 with bet365, paying six places.
I am also going to put up three ante-post bets for later this month. The first is to go in double-handed in the BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase, due to be run over the Grand National fences in eight days’ time.
I tipped Percussion, each way at 10-1, for this race a week ago and he remains a good bet. However, at that point it was unclear whether the Joe Tizzard-trained THE BIG BREAKAWAY would be Aintree bound or would wait for the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on December 27.
Indeed, many thought he was much more likely to head to south Wales since the race is run in memory of Tizzard’s late sister, Kim Gingell, and since The Big Breakaway was a gallant second in the contest last season.
The fact that Tizzard now says his eight-year-old gelding is due to run in the Becher is telling and this talented horse remains well treated off a mark of 147. His seasonal debut when fifth at Wincanton last month should mean he is spot on for this challenge.
The Big Breakaway ran in the Randox Grand National in April when the record book shows he fell at the second fence. However, he was essentially knocked over then by another horse and he deserves a second chance at these brush fences.
Crucially, as an astute Spectator Life reader, Oswald Grimes, pointed out earlier in the season, The Big Breakaway has a much better record on left-handed courses than going right-handed, and Aintree is a flat, left-handed track that should suit him well. There is also plenty of rain forecast for the second half of next week and it is a case of the softer, the better, for the Tizzard horse.
Take the 25-1 each way, paying four places, that is available with most bookmakers. There will probably be more places available on the day but I don’t think there will be anything like the 22-strong field of last year come December 9. In truth, The Big Breakaway’s jumping may not be good enough for this race but that’s more than accounted for in his generous price.
There is another competitive handicap chase the following Saturday when the Virgin Bet December Gold Cup is run at Cheltenham on December 16. Course specialists such as Fugitif and Il Ridoto are likely to run and are already towards the front of the market. However, my preference is to back two improving young chasers, THUNDER ROCK and IN EXCELSIS DEO.
The former is a seven-year-old gelding trained by Olly Murphy, who won on his seasonal debut, defeating Mahler Mission and two other rivals in a four-horse race at Carlisle last month. He was not raised from his official mark of 146 for that win and he had some decent chase form, including at Cheltenham, last season.
He ran like a non-stayer when only sixth to The Real Whacker in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March and this trip of just over 2 and a half miles seems his preferred distance. Back him each way at 10-1, four places, with bet365 or William Hill.
Equally of interest, however, is Harry Fry’s five-year-old gelding In Excelsis Deo, who I am pretty sure will end up this season much higher than his current rating of just 132. He ran a perfect prep race for this near-£75,000 first prize when he third on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in late October.
He ran on strongly from the second last fence that day and this step up in trip, to just over 2 miles 4 furlongs, looks certain to suit him. Back him each way at 10-1 too, this time with William Hill, Coral or Ladbrokes.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
2 points win Mahler Mission at 8-1 for the Coral Gold Cup
1 point each way Stumptown at 9-1, for the Coral Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Percussion at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway at 25-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Thunder Rock at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way In Excelsis Deo at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 14-1 for the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places. 3rd. + 1.8 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 4.05 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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