Irreconcilable differences

It has become clear over the last few weeks that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the coalition. Once, the rows between Tories and Lib Dems used to be about peripheral issues, but they are now about the central planks of government policy. In happier times, disputes used to lead to better policy-making; now they result in crude horse-trading. The coalition used to be underpinned by trust between the central players in each party. That trust is now breaking down and there is a growing feeling that the coalition cannot go the distance until 2015. One Downing Street adviser told me this week, with a fatalistic air, that a ‘2014 election wouldn’t be too bad really. David would have done his best, Nick would have done his best. But they just couldn’t make it work any more.’

This language, the language of failed relationships, is revealing. For all the attempts to discuss it in businesslike terms, the coalition has always been a little like a marriage. At the beginning, it felt like a whirlwind romance. The two sides suddenly discovered that they weren’t that different after all, that they might be compatible. They began to dream of a new life together free from the constraints of their respective families. There were a number of influential Tories and Lib Dems who wanted ‘coalition forever’. Now the end is in sight.

The high command aren’t even sure they can make it to the next election. What used to be unsayable, that the coalition might not last until 2015, is being openly discussed. Senior Conservatives are giving increasing thought to what they would do if they were left running a minority government. Some even want a programme for a minority government to be drawn up so that the party is prepared for this eventuality.