There may have been a decent turnout of both youthful Tory members and elderly cardholders at this year’s Conservative party conference in Manchester, but it was the missing group in the middle that made all the difference. The crowds were significantly slimmed down without the corporate types, with parts of the venue ghostly quiet by mid-afternoon. And the party could have done with more support from its elected representatives: despite the Holyrood election being just seven months away, just a smattering of MSPs journeyed down from Scotland.
Former crime journalist-turned-party leader Russell Findlay was on good form, however, quipping during the Scottish reception that Wales was Kemi Badenoch’s ‘second favourite devolved’ nation before adding: ‘I despise defection, I demand loyalty.’ Be warned, any wannabe defectors! Findlay was energetic and upbeat – although the Scottish Tory leader is still trying to figure out where to stand next year, given the number of Tory safe seats in Scotland has markedly declined.
The Scottish Tories plan to fight the Holyrood election campaign on the economy, an area in which, as Badenoch demonstrated in her closing speech on Wednesday, the party has big plans. Thanks to devolution, the messaging is a little trickier for those campaigning north of the border, but the Tories want to see the Scottish government abolish Scotland’s version of stamp duty and introduce a ‘Reduction of Red Tape’ bill, Pat McFadden-style, to make it easier for businesses to grow.
The problem for the Scottish Tories remains similar to that facing their English counterparts: is anyone ready to listen?
Findlay has accused the SNP government of focusing on ‘woke and wellbeing policies that do nothing for economic growth’, and his party recently released a ‘Back on Track’ white paper that sets out the group’s vision for growth. With echoes of Liz Truss’s attack on the ‘anti-growth coalition’, the Scottish Tories want to exit what it views as the anti-growth ‘wellbeing economic alliance’ and change the very culture of the Scottish government, pushing civil servants and ministers in a growth-focused direction. They would create ‘Growth Scotland’ by merging existing organisations into one body focused on growth. And in a notable tack to the right, the paper adds that the Tories would end net zero-first mandates in business groups to make economic growth the sole focus.
The party is, of course, opposed to devolved tax hikes, and in a pro-business move says it would guarantee the lowest business rates in the UK for retail, hospitality and leisure to draw in investment. Findlay’s group would create ‘regeneration relief’, a permanent business rate discount for forgotten communities, similar to previous levelling up policies but with a more local focus. And new Scottish business zones would be set up, with Grangemouth designated the first pilot under the Tory plans.
It’s undeniably a pro-growth paper, but the problem for the Scottish Tories remains similar to that facing their English counterparts: is anyone ready to listen? Findlay’s group has been badly hurt both by the Covid-era scandals, regicide and infighting of the Westminster party, but also by a rise in support for Reform across the UK. And Truss blew a hole in her party’s credibility on the economy when she misjudged the market reaction to her 2022 mini-Budget. More than having good policies, the party needs to rebuild its brand.
‘It’s a long journey,’ shadow Scotland secretary Andrew Bowie admitted during The Spectator’s Scotland panel on Tuesday. ‘I think all of us probably are a little bit disappointed that despite how exciting and punchy and radical and new some of our policy ideas are, they didn’t quite set the heather alight.’ But, he argues, there are people within the party that are making things harder:
‘What really frustrates me about people who say “conference is quiet”, “the Tories are dying in the polls”, “we need to change leader” – for goodness sake: it was less than a year-and-a-half ago. We had the worst electoral defeat in our entire 200-year history, Kemi has been in less than a year.’
It’s not just policy but personalities that members should be excited about, Bowie argued. ‘The situation between the Scottish Conservatives and CCHQ is one of the strongest… Kemi and Russell are ideologically aligned – in fact, probably the most aligned Scottish and UK leaders that we’ve had since David Cameron and Ruth Davidson.’ That may be the case – although Badenoch has only been to Scotland twice since she became leader – but with a number of no-shows from the Scottish group at their last conference before the Holyrood poll, some work remains to be done.
‘It’s disgraceful,’ one of the Scottish Tories who did turn up huffed during their Scottish reception. The anxiety in the room was palpable, in stark contrast to the air of acceptance and even optimism seen among the party’s MPs who have the luxury of three-and-a-half years until their next election. One attendee remarked to me afterwards: ‘The most upbeat moment of that reception was the news the Rangers manager had been sacked.’
Since the start of 2025, the polls have projected a surge in support for Reform UK – with some suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could, despite not having a leader or much of an apparatus in Scotland, become the main opposition – at the expense of the Conservatives. More surveys have suggested the Tories, currently the biggest opposition group in Holyrood, could fall in size to fourth place. Some pollsters have even suggested there’s scope for the Conservatives to come in sixth.
Of course, Reform UK now has a representative in Scotland: Graham Simpson, who defected from the Scottish Tories only a few months ago. Simpson’s name evoked a mix of anger and disgust from many of the politicians in attendance at the Scottish reception. Many refused to talk about him, instead muttering something along the lines of ‘good riddance’. On Jamie Greene, who ditched the Conservatives earlier this year for the orange pastures of Lib Dem land, one MSP snorted: ‘I don’t know why they took him in – he’d be more at home in the Greens!’
In an era where social media clips amass more views than newspaper op-eds, the victors are those who can cut through.
Naturally, there was no love lost for defectors at the Manchester meet – which is why some members were visibly shocked to see Tim Montgomerie, the ConHome founder who jumped ship to Reform last year, wandering around the venue. In the same vein, there were very few attendees who supported an electoral deal with the populist party, as a rather unscientific poll of the audience at The Spectator panel event revealed. ‘I do not want to see a pact,’ Harriet Cross MP reiterated firmly. ‘I’d love to ask [the defectors], why are you defecting? What is it about Reform that’s attracting you? Because I don’t know what they stand for. They don’t know what they stand for. All they know is they stand for something.’
But ultimately in an era where voters are more interested in strongmen than policy wonks, and social media clips amass more views than newspaper op-eds, the victors are those who can cut through. No matter what you think of its policies, Reform is winning this battle. Cross conceded: ‘Farage to his credit is very good at that… We need to insert ourselves into conversations, we need to be omnipresent.’
The Reform leader has, for example, more TikTok followers than his Westminster parliamentarians combined. Russell Findlay has a two-year ‘BeReal’ streak, but that’s not quite the same. Conservative politicians must have found some solace in seeing young members bustle about the conference centre, but it is persuading those outside the venue to give them a hearing that is crucial. With an election just over six months away, Findlay’s party must get voters listening to them again, and fast. They won’t come first – but they still have time to save themselves from being sixth.
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