One Boris supporter asked me this week, ‘How bad do you think things are?’ The thing under discussion, it quickly turned out, was Boris’s leadership prospects. Among his camp followers, there is growing concern that Boris is being left behind in the leadership race.
The Mayor’s chances have certainly taken a knock in recent months. First, the Tories winning a majority exploded the argument that they needed someone with Boris’s ‘beyond politics’ appeal to win outright. Then, Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader changed the calculation about the 2020 election for the Tories. Suddenly, a safety first approach – eg a non-Boris one – seems much more appealing.
But there are signs that Boris is preparing to strike some distinctive positions. This week, he signed up to an amendment on selection in schools. Now, this amendment was not put to a vote, but the significance of Boris backing it was not lost on senior Tories inside government or on influential backbenchers.
Even more significantly, Boris now appears to be closer to backing Out come the EU referendum than ever before. I understand that in recent meetings he has made it clear that he thinks the City of London could do just fine outside of the EU. Tory Eurosceptics have also been cheered by his private support for those who rebelled to defeat the government’s attempt to change the rules on ‘purdah’ for the EU referendum. They have taken this as a sign that he is moving their way.
If Boris did back Out, it would be the biggest risk of his political career to date. But it is becoming increasingly clear that if he is to become Prime Minister then he is going to have to take some risks.
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