There are a couple of other reasons he may go now. Peter Hain has written an article for the Guardian, wooing Lib Dem voters (more on that later) – could that article be a prelude to the big announcement? Fourth quarter growth figures have been revised upwards, to a staggering 0.3 percent, which is encouraging but still low enough for Labour to run on a ‘Not The Time For Cuts' ticket. Equally, the Tories hope to get their campaign back on track this weekend at their spring conference – calling an election would obviously overshadow that and deepen the Tories’ crisis.
My gut instinct, which, I should point out, is often proved ruinously unreliable at the races, is that he won’t. I still think he’ll want to pass as much legislation from the Queen’s Speech as possible, and let the probable budget settle, before seeking a dissolution.
UPDATE: Well, for once it seems my instinct was right.