Is it all over for Sarko?

The French president’s chances of re-election look bleak. But the problem is not his politics, says Patrick Marnham, so much as his embarrassing personal life

Gordon Brown is not the only European leader who is regarded as an electoral liability by his own party. With two years to go before France’s next presidential election Nicolas Sarkozy’s chances are not looking good. He is entitled to run for a second five-year term, but in 2012 it will be 24 years since the French chose a president from the left. Many voters think it is time for a change. Mr Sarkozy is now one of the most unpopular political personalities in France.

In last month’s regional elections the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), Sarkozy’s party, lost 21 out of 22 regions to the Parti Socialiste. And within days the tractors were once again rolling into Paris, 1,000-strong, carrying mobs of angry farmers. Three years of frantic attempts to drag France into the economic 21st century seem to have got nowhere.

When he came to power Sarkozy promised ‘la rupture’ (a clean break). He was going to end unemployment, reduce the government’s huge public spending deficit, lower taxes, embrace the global economy and shrink the state. Today unemployment is at 10 per cent, which is the highest level for a decade, and this year the country’s state pension deficit will be a record E11 billion. The president is under pressure to increase taxes further, and the state remains unshrunk. France still has one of the highest levels of public spending in Europe. Public finances are not in as big a mess as the UK’s but Sarko has managed to make himself even less popular. Taking on the massed ranks of trade unionists, farmers, civil servants and government pensioners who are the historical beneficiaries of the French system was never going to be easy.