As the world reels from the chaos of a geopolitical order turned upside down, and as we wait to see if America really will invade Canada, spare a thought for Tehran. Losing one ally in the space of 12 months (Hezbollah) is bad enough. But losing two (Syria) is downright terrible. And then add to the mix the prosect of losing a third (Russia) as Moscow contemplates sacrificing the Islamic Republic on the altar of Putin’s pivot towards Donald Trump, and you have a really, really bad few months. Tehran can’t work out which way is up.
Recently, the regime fired two senior politicians, who would have been likely to negotiate with Donald Trump’s team on the ever thorny issue of Iran’s nuclear programme. When in doubt, the regime reverts to type – mistrusting the West.
The Islamic Republic, no matter how deep its crises at home and abroad, still just can’t bring itself to negotiate with Donald Trump. And this despite all the early optimism of Musk’s 2024 meeting with Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Sayyed Iravani, and some of the cautious noises from Trump, J.D. Vance and one or two regime insiders in Tehran. You can’t blame Khamenei and co. for their scepticism regarding Donald and his deals when one remembers that it was Trump who pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and then ordered the assassination of the IRGC’s most important military figure. Qassem Soleymani.
President Trump said last week that he’d sent a letter to Khamenei, seeking to negotiate a new deal on the regime’s nuclear programme whereby Iran would abandon its programme and give up its regional proxies, in exchange for sanctions relief and some much needed economic breathing space. Khamenei, from what we hear, feels strongly that what Trump is offering is not a deal, but rather capitulation, a chance to betray the Islamic Republic and everything it stands for, leaving it defenceless in the region and shorn of its nuclear deterrent at home. That’s the problem with revolutionary states driven by powerful religious ideology; they’ve just no flexibility.
After Zelensky’s ritual mugging in the White House, a bizarre poster was erected on a bridge in Tehran asking the sensible question; ‘if this is how Trump treats his allies, how would he treat his enemies?’ Skating over the minor detail that the Iranians have been helping Russia try to kill Ukrainians for three years now, Iranian politicians have expressed sympathy with Zelensky’s plight, using it as a very persuasive argument to demonstrate why entering into negotiations with the US would be folly.
But what Tehran is most frightened of is the creeping proximity that we are all seeing between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. For Iran knows that without Moscow on its side, it is even weaker than it is now. And once you get beyond the ideology and the history, Iran is a proud, culturally brilliant and politically important nation that badly needs inward investment, sanctions relief and a chance to play a positive role in the region’s politics.
Word from Tehran is that Moscow has exerted considerable influence over Khamenei to ensure that rapprochement between Iran and the US comes to nothing. Moscow needs Iran as a regional bogeyman both because it offers Putin a chance to mediate between Washington and Tehran, but also because the last thing a derailed and struggling Russian economy needs is Iranian energy products flooding global markets and driving prices down. And with the prospect of the ultimate prize of a divided Nato (helped along by Donald’s Russia First policy) and a pliant America leaving Europe potentially weakened, Putin will want nothing to spoil his big moment. In short, Iran has gone from trusted partner to Russia to disposable pawn in the space of a matter of weeks.
Every year in the Islamic Republic is seen as ‘pivotal.’ But at the risk of crying wolf, I’d say that Iran now faces some extremely load bearing choices, at home and abroad. For as Washington has made very clear, Tehran’s rejection of talks would lead to Israeli jets paying Natanz and Esfahan a visit. Recent joint US-Israeli muscular displays of military might (exercises, mind you) provided a timely reminder on the above point. And at home, as I’ve written before, the atmosphere is febrile, and Khamenei’s speeches, masterful as ever, lack some of the confidence of old. Iran’s Reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has become a lame duck in record time. And Iran’s youth remain restive, restricted and resentful of an ideology that has stolen money, dreams and much more.
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