Is Rishi’s tax cut pledge enough to rally MPs?

Rishi Sunak has a reputation for sleek and snazzy presentation, and his leadership launch this morning was no exception – by Westminster standards, anyway. The air-conditioning was on full blast as young activists lined up with their ‘Ready For Rishi!’ signs, next to heavily branded backdrops. And the guest list was long. MPs in attendance included many who had already declared for Sunak: Bim Afolami, Claire Coutinho, Helen Whately, and Liam Fox.

There were also surprise guests, including the Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, who introduced Sunak and credited him for delivering ‘the biggest tax cut for working people in a decade’ by lifting the National Insurance threshold for millions. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps also turned up (until five minutes before Sunak’s launch, he had been running a leadership bid of his own). Perhaps the most eye-catching guest, however, was Gavin Williamson, Boris Johnson’s former Education Secretary who played a pivotal role in securing ‘Team Boris’ MP votes in the 2019 leadership contest. He lay low at the back of the room.

Like Sajid Javid yesterday, Sunak committed to a ‘positive campaign’, as mud-slinging and ugly briefings have ramped up in recent days, reminding his audience that ‘we are still part of the same Conservative family’. As James Forsyth notes, it’s a growing worry within the party that attacks are getting too personal and too dirty, handing Labour gift after gift for when the next general election comes. In the spirit of getting along, Sunak also had some glowing words for the Prime Minister, insisting Johnson is ‘one of the most remarkable people’ he has ever met, pledging that he would take ‘no part in a rewriting of history that seeks to demonise Boris, exaggerate his faults or deny his efforts’.

Sunak’s praise for Johnson’s ‘good heart’ comes at an interesting time, as the Prime Minister’s most loyal cabinet members – including Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg – threw their support behind Liz Truss last night, increasing speculation over who the Prime Minister is quietly hoping will replace him. But the comments suggest Sunak is already thinking past the parliamentary race and onto his pitch to the grassroots. Hustings between the final two candidates will present a lot of frustrated Tory voters who still feel loyal to the Prime Minister. This will require a balancing act. Presenting as too anti-Boris could harm a leadership hopeful in the next stage of the race.

On tax and spend, Sunak did not shy away from accusations that he won’t cut taxes straight away. ‘We need to have a grown-up conversation about where we are, how we got here and what we intend to do about it,’ he said to kick off his speech, repeating the phrase ‘grown-up conversation’ two more times during his ten-minute remarks. Rather than matching other contestants tax cut for tax cut, he doubled down on his commitment to ‘traditional conservative economic values’ and dismissed anything else as ‘fairy tales.’ ‘It is not credible to promise lots more spending and lower taxes,’ he insisted, narrowing in on the main debate that has dominated the leadership race so far.

While Sunak remained vague on his timeline for tax cuts, but he did commit to delivering tax cuts and explained his order of priorities: ‘Once we’ve gripped inflation, I will get the tax burden down. It is a question of when, not if.’ So the timeline goes: ‘tackle inflation, grow the economy and cut taxes.’

Will this be enough for MPs, who are eager to see the tax burden go down, to get behind Sunak? His promise to eventually cut taxes might convince some of them, though both MPs and voters are going to want some specifics soon. But if curbing inflation is a necessary requirement for Sunak to slash tax, there will be no guaranteed date for delivery. Persuading the party that this is the most responsible approach – and ultimately the best approach to secure long-term tax cuts – remains Sunak’s biggest battle.