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Is Robert Jenrick emerging as a leadership frontrunner?

(Photo by Darren Staples/Getty Images)

Robert Jenrick chose a swelteringly hot day in sunny Newark to stage his official leadership campaign launch. ‘I’m in politics for you,’ he told the packed-out room, filled with a mixed crowd of young families and veteran Tory supporters. ‘We can persuade young people to join the Conservatives again,’ the 42-year-old insisted. ‘We must be better. We can be better.’

It was in this optimistic vein that Jenrick’s speech continued. In a rosy summary of the Conservatives’ time in government, the former government minister first pointed to his party’s achievements: school reforms, keeping Corbyn out, swooping to the side of Ukraine and – despite being a Remainer himself – Brexit. ‘All of this begs a big question,’ Jenrick concluded. ‘How is it that we have just suffered our worst ever electoral defeat?’ 

Of course, the list of ‘why’ is rather long, from party regicide to a rising tax burden. The Conservative party’s failures are not from leaning too far in any political direction but instead, Jenrick believes, because a lack of delivery has damaged public trust. Failing to tackle immigration was the principle let-down, Jenrick said, noting: ‘We allowed the cycle of broken promises to continue.’ Addressing his dramatic resignation from the Home Office last December, in which he followed long-time colleague Suella Braverman out the door and damaged relations with Rishi Sunak, Jenrick claims: ‘The British state was either unwilling or unable to perform its most basic duty to secure our borders and to keep the British people safe.’ So how would the former government minister better tackle the issue? ‘What is absolutely at the heart of my policy is that if you arrive in this country illegally, you will be detained and you’ll be removed within days.’ And if he were to become party leader and one day prime minister, would Jenrick hope to bring back the Rwanda policy? In a word: yes. 

The ex-immigration minister is keen to ensure he’s not just seen as a one-trick pony.

But the ex-immigration minister is keen to ensure he’s not just seen as a one-trick pony. In a decisive policy plan, Jenrick set out his vision for a party he wants to change. From building more prisons and houses, to shifting energy investment from offshore wind to nuclear, to reforming the benefit system, Jenrick is marking himself out as the ‘delivery’ candidate with clear goals in mind. He wants to invest ‘at least 3 per cent’ of GDP in defence and spend more on the armed forces. He would leave the ECHR. On the NHS, Jenrick insists the country needs to remember that ‘the NHS is a public service, not a religion’. His very brief stint as a health minister under Truss has given him insight into the bureaucracy of the healthcare system and Jenrick is keen to make NHS reform a key part of his campaign. 

And naturally his launch wasn’t entirely devoid of digs at Labour. ‘There’s a cabal of rebel Labour MPs and independents who are already gunning for Sir Keir. And among them is one MP for Islington, who is publicly seething that Sir Keir has waltzed into No. 10 without giving them so much as a thought,’ he told his supporters. ‘But let’s not waste too much time worrying about poor Emily Thornberry.’

As Katy recently wrote in the Spectator, Jenrick’s campaign is an organised one. His team has an efficient operation going behind the scenes and the leadership candidate already has the public support of a number of high profile MPs. Most are on the right of the group – with Jenrick poaching former Suella backers like Sir John Hayes, present today – while another public endorsement is expected this weekend from someone on a different wing of the party. His relative obscurity with the public has led to poor initial polling, but his team are confident that other candidates have more baggage, with stronger links to former prime ministers. The fact that betting company William Hill this week said Jenrick had overtaken Kemi Badenoch as the bookies’ favourite suggests they have cause for cautious optimism.

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