Tim Ogden

Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?

Ukrainian soldiers outside the city of Donetsk in 2019 (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

With occasional artillery duels and sporadic exchanges of small arms fire, Ukraine’s long-running civil war was never quite extinguished. However, the embers of the last five years, which have seen dozens killed in skirmishes each month, could now reignite as eastern Ukraine risks becoming an open battleground once again.

Around 25,000 Russian troops have been positioned on Ukraine’s disputed borders, movements which were followed by artillery bombardments and firefights that have already resulted in casualties for both sides. Further escalation between Kiev and Moscow is now frighteningly possible. In previous cases, most notably Georgia in 2008, a sudden build-up of Russian forces signals the beginning of a carefully planned assault.

The fierce fighting between 2014 and 2016 saw cities ruined and vicious battles. Life in the east of the region never quite returned to normal after the 2014 revolution, in which the Moscow-aligned Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in favour of a pro-Western government. In Eastern Ukraine, this was viewed as a fascist takeover: many have a greater cultural affinity with Russia than with their own state. A majority of the populace speaks Russian rather than Ukrainian as a first language, and many more identify as ethnically Russians.

Western Ukrainians, meanwhile, saw their future in Europe. This idea was buoyed by the successes of some of their post-Soviet peers: the three Baltic states and Poland had already earned Nato and EU membership — widely seen as the best guarantors of safety from Russia — while Georgia was comfortably on the same path and already reaping significant economic benefits.

Ceasefires have been repeatedly signed and broken, the latest came a week ago when Ukrainian positions were shelled by separatist forces

As the government in Kiev declared its Western intentions, the Russophile east decided to secede. The newly-formed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk were equally inspired by their fellow former Soviets, only those to whom they looked for inspiration were the Kremlin-backed separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova.

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