Is Syria next?

I used to think that Syria was some way off a revolution. The protests were geographically limited; Bashar al-Assad was willing to use Libyan-style violence against them and the West seemed uncharacteristically mute. What’s more, demands for the Syrian president to go were limited. And then there’s the real fear that Syria, made up of so many different sectarian groups, would collapse into a vortex of internecine violence akin to the Lebanese civil war.

But these arguments may be losing their weight. The current unrest is the most serious challenge facing Bashar al-Assad and his Alawite regime. And nothing the Syrian dictator has done so far has made a difference. Not lifting the emergency laws. Not shooting protesters. The latest protests were in the city of Homs, the country’s third largest.

Meanwhile, the external pressure on the regime is growing. Yesterday, the United States called for Syria’s leadership to “address the legitimate aspirations of its people”. This is not yet the push that Hosni Mubarak faced, but it is stronger language. The question may no longer be whether Syria is next but what comes next: a conflict like Libya’s, a half-finished revolution like Egypt’s, a violent showdown with the protesters a la Tiannamen Square, or more liberalisation?