Is that a new boom on the far horizon?

The real economy has taken only the first step towards recession but the housing market has already clocked up four successive quarters of negative growth. Indeed, house prices have now fallen further in 13 months, according to the Halifax, than they plunged in the whole three years of the 1989-91 crash. And like the rest of the economy, the housing scene is still deteriorating.

But for those who see the glass half full rather than half empty, from now on a series of signs will justify a degree of optimism in the housing market. We’re probably not halfway into the property slump yet, but we should be very soon — and from then on, the market will be coming out of recession rather than going in.

First, by some time in December, average UK home prices will have fallen back to their long-term trend line. They won’t stop falling, of course, and the undershoot below that level could be as sharp as the overshoot was at last year’s peak — suggesting a slide of around 30 per cent by the time the market bottoms and turns back up towards that trend line.