Is the Tory right being split?

Today’s the day in the Tory leadership race where it starts to look less like a fun run with anyone and everyone taking part. By this evening, candidates need to have the backing of at least 20 of their MP colleagues. Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat are the only candidates out of a field of 11 (and possibly still growing) to reach the threshold. It means today will be a frenzied round of conversations in the corridors of power, with half of Conservative MPs still to give their endorsements (read the full list here).

One of the big tussles is over who gets the backing of the right of the party. Liz Truss isn’t far off reaching the threshold, but she is competing with Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and potentially also Priti Patel, who still hasn’t ruled herself out. The worry among MPs on this wing is that the three or maybe even four candidates end up splitting the vote to the extent that none of them makes it into the final two. There isn’t much evidence that a deal could be struck between the camps, either: the right of the Tory party isn’t homogenous and there are significant ideological differences between the candidates. Truss has secured the backing of Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg, which has its benefits in certain parts of the party. But it also adds grist to the mill of the not inconsiderable group of Tories who want Anyone But Truss and are prepared to game things so that she isn’t in the final two.

Then again, the pitch from the Truss camp is that she’s the only one who can stop Sunak, who has gone from being the golden boy to being someone who really, really winds up a lot of Tory MPs with his refusal to go for tax cuts when he was chancellor and his description of such promises as fairytales in this campaign. The Anyone Buts are going to be very busy in the early stages of this campaign to try to get their most dreaded candidates out of that final two.