Is there any hope left for the independence movement?

As we mark 10 years on from Scotland’s independence referendum, the entire political ecosystem in Scotland is engaged in attempts to define, or redefine, the narrative of that time. Those on my side of the independence argument remember a campaign of energy, optimism and positivity that is simply unmatched. It’s also the case that, for many on the pro-union side, they recall a divisive and hostile experience of the Yes movement. Both points of view can, of course, be true and are equally valid. Yet, it’s a uniquely Scottish curiosity that my side – ultimately, the losing side – speaks more fondly of that time than the actual winners. But this is Scottish politics, and normal rules don’t always apply here.

I’ve always been of the view that a moment spent looking back is a moment we could’ve spent looking forward. And whilst engaging in nostalgia has some value, it would be more productive to be thinking about how we author the second post-referendum decade. It’s worth noting that recent polling shows support for independence still hovering just below the fifty-percent mark. When tied with prospect of rejoining the EU, support surges beyond fifty percent. The recent general election may have paused the urgency of independence, but by no means was the cause given its last rites.

So how does Scotland get to a point where the question can be put again? Well, when the voters say so. But can we expect that to happen when we suffer a mind-numbingly tribal political culture that sees us speak past one another? No. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier believes that politics is best done on the principle that your opponent might have a point. Too few of us could be accused of that.

Following the July election, the SNP – the parliamentary wing of the independence cause – has, in some ways, been returned to its proper function. At a referendum anniversary event organised by Glasgow University’s John Smith Centre (full disclosure: I sit on the board of that centre) an audience member observed that, now a referendum is clearly not imminent, the SNP is no longer the hostage to an impatient Yes movement that has spent the past decade stuck on amber. It’s an observation that carries more truth than my fellow Nats may be comfortable with. Whilst my party should use the space to focus on governing with a fresh mindset, this new decade presents an opportunity for all of Scotland’s political parties to rebalance the Scottish conversation for a new decade.

Holyrood’s next occasion to do so will be December’s Scottish budget. All parties should quite seriously seek a budget agreement that transcends the constitutional division that plagues our MSPs. Whilst I don’t believe in engineering a false consensus, it can’t be beyond our legislators to elevate the national interest over the party interest in these times, when the country needs stability to progress.

And then there will be the next election in 2026. Current polling suggests a messy result with a parliament made up of minorities, and even the possibility of Reform UK gaining a foothold. 

Over the 25 years of devolution, we’ve seen many different manifestations of government: minority administrations, a majority administration and formal coalitions. Yet we’ve never seen the most obvious. A coalition between the SNP and Labour, Scotland’s two dominant centre-left parties – similar to the Irish model that saw Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil rotate the office of Taoiseach – is one we might want to consider in the event of a messy result in 2026. What a breath of fresh air that would be. I don’t suggest for a moment, of course, that this would be easy. It would take compromise and continuous effort to make it work. But it would, overnight, transform a political culture that has grown more interested in having an argument than winning an argument.

Whilst all parties have a job to do in tidying up our political dialogue over the coming time, the case and campaign for independence must be reimagined totally if it is to succeed in the future. This is not to be underestimated. It will require those false prophets who advance clever wheezes and shortcuts to be given no quarter. Those who labour under the falsehood that we can just declare independence on the back of an election, or that the international community can be invited to solve what is a peaceful domestic debate, are not serious. Scotland isn’t the Balkans, and we would do well to avoid slipping into a psychology that treats it like it is.

This coming decade is a time to construct a fresh case and campaign for independence that’s fit for the modern world, where independence is anchored in solutions to the social, economic and political insecurities – such as war, technological change, climate breakdown, irregular mass migration – that are fuelling today’s anxious zeitgeist and producing a more volatile electorate. Ultimately, the cause needs a clean slate, proper reflection and serious people who can move us outside of our comfort zone. Whether these things will come to pass is another matter entirely.