Is this the end for Europe’s last dictator?

Alexander Lukashenko, labelled by the Bush administration as ‘Europe’s last dictator’, was never going to go down without a fight. In his final public address before Belarus went to the polls he offered a thinly veiled warning to those who wish to remove him from power: ‘[Our Belarus] is rather naive and a little bit fragile but she is beloved and when you love something you do not give it up.’

On election day, Lukashenko delivered on his grim campaign promise. Official exit polls gave the incumbent an implausible 80 per cent of the vote: his fifth landslide in 26 years at the helm. The lion’s share of presumed electoral fraud happened before polls opened. State media announced that around 40 per cent of the electorate had opted to vote early. Opposition sources noted that if this was the case, then the voter turnout at certain polling stations would have been a miraculous 120 per cent.

When the polls closed, opposition supporters took to the streets and were met with force. Tear gas, rubber bullets, stun grenades and police batons were used in an attempt to disperse the protests that went on for days. As human rights abuses and police violence continued, they were shroud-ed in an information vacuum: reporters were bundled into vans and their cameras destroyed, and the internet in most of Belarus was cut off by the government. Despite this, there is a lingering optimism that Lukashenko can no longer hold on for ever. Is this campaign the beginning of the road that in five or ten years will lead to a democratic Belarus and perhaps even European integration?

First, it is important to understand how we got here. Belarus took a markedly different course from Russia and Ukraine when they became independent in 1991.