Within the next three hours, the seventeen-month reign of Australia’s conservative PM Tony Abbott may come to a crashing close, terminated not by policy differences but by populism and personality. Could Twitter be about to claim its first prime ministerial scalp?
The contrasting characters of Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull could not have been more cunningly scripted had Jeffrey Archer invented them: one a staunch monarchist (whose act of awarding an Aussie knighthood to Prince Philip on Australia Day exactly two weeks ago led directly to this morning’s party room spill), the other the former frontman of the (failed) 1999 Republican referendum. One a fervent climate change sceptic (Mr Abbott once described climate change as ‘crap’), the other a firm believer who once claimed ‘I will not lead a party that is not as committed to effective action on climate change as I am’.
Turnbull, who briefly led the party in opposition before being toppled in 2009 by Abbott, represents an electorate in Sydney’s trendy eastern suburbs (think Islington) where the key concerns are climate change, gay marriage and bicycle paths. He is the darling of Australia’s leftist public broadcaster the ABC, pin-up boy for the Guardian Australia and other left-leaning media and hugely popular among the twitterati and the student worlds. Indeed, many have long wished he were leading the Labor party.
Mr Abbott, on the other hand, led a conservative backlash against the wasteful, debt-laden Rudd-Gillard-Rudd governments that resulted in a landslide victory only seventeen months ago for his Liberal National Party Coalition.
At 9am AEST (10pm GMT) in a hastily convened party room meeting prior to the beginning of the 2015 parliamentary year in Canberra, the Liberal victors of 2013 meet to decide whether to replace Abbott with Turnbull. Despite an impressive list of achievements over the past year and a half, which includes ‘stopping the boats’ of asylum-seekers, three Free Trade Agreements, and scrapping the unpopular carbon and mining taxes, Abbott has remained a deeply unpopular figure. He is despised by much of the media and demonised on social media, where he only tentatively dabbles. Unfortunately for him, as he enters the meeting the latest Newspoll shows his personal popularity continues to decline to levels not seen since the days of the divisive Paul Keating.
How did it come to this? A poorly sold and complicated budget, which languishes unloved and unpassed in the Senate, combined with a series of clumsily handled ‘captain’s picks’ – including the aforementioned knighthood – saw Abbott increasingly criticized over the Christmas (summer) recess.
In particular, former supporters and commentators of the right, who may soon be ruing their overly-enthusiastic commitment to freedom of expression, weighed in on his backflips and gaffes. Throw in the much maligned Peta Credlin, a powerful woman who is Abbott’s over-bearing Chief of Staff, along with two dramatic losses for conservatives in two state elections, and dissatisfaction with Abbott reached fever pitch. In the end, backbenchers became spooked by the sheer unpopularity of their leader, allowing themselves to be convinced that a resurgent Labor party led by union man Bill Shorten will easily succeed come the next federal election (due in 2016).
Yet who to challenge him? Of the potential candidates, one was his deputy and foreign minister Julie Bishop, the other Turnbull. Both hedged and then pledged loyalty. Neither has declared they will run unless the spill motion (proposed by two maverick backbenchers, one of whom believes that eating halal meat turns you Muslim and the other who quips about the ‘gay BC’) succeeds. At which point it is expected Turnbull will nominate, with Bishop as his deputy. Does he have the numbers? Thus far, this candidate-less coup appears to have been very well orchestrated. It’s touch and go. Stay tuned.
Rowan Dean is editor of Spectator Australia
Comments