Fraser Nelson

Israel faces the prospect of an Iranian bomb

Israel faces the prospect of an Iranian bomb
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So when will Iran get enough nuclear material for a bomb? In evidence to the Knesset this morning, Israeli military intelligence has suggested this could happen as early as this year. Of course, the Iranians don't (yet) have the right missiles. There was some concern about Russians selling a S300 anti-aircraft missile to China who could sell it to Iran - but when I was in Jerusalem a few weeks ago the officials I spoke to said they think the Kremlin has changed its mind. (Ditto with the sale of MiG31s to Syria). But with the material ready to go, it can only be a matter of time before Iran finds a missile from somewhere.

Israel isn't under attack, but it feels like it right now. It's in the midst of a five-day emergency drill called "Turning Point Three", where schools, hospitals etc. run through what they'd do if under a multiple missile attack. During my visit in March, I was struck by the number of Israelis who feel that it's inevitable that Iran will get the bomb - and the question is how many will stick around and wait for the Ayatollahs to try another holocaust.  This squared with a recent opinion poll, which suggested a quarter would consider emigration if Iran got the bomb. And this morning's sobering assessment about Iran's capabilities will do nothing to undermine the concern in Israel.

P.S. For a superb primer on Iran's nuclear timeline, here's a podcast discussion from the AEI.

Written byFraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is the editor of The Spectator. He is also a columnist with The Daily Telegraph, a member of the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice and the Centre for Policy Studies.

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