Births in the United Kingdom are halving every 55 years. While headlines still focus on overpopulation – driven by urban growth, longer life expectancy, and immigration – the real demographic trajectory is heading sharply in the opposite direction. If current trends continue, by 2080 Britain will need only half as many neonatal units, kindergartens, and primary schools as it does today. That may sound distant, but the effects are already here. Schools are closing across the country, particularly in London, and earlier this year the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead shut its maternity and neonatal units, citing falling birthrates.
The UK is not alone. The EU faces a nearly identical outlook; the United States is not far behind. In Spain and Japan, births are halving every 38 years. South Korea is on an even steeper trajectory, with births halving every 19 years. Current fertility patterns show only 45 per cent of South Koreans are likely to have children (and that’s often later in life), meaning that when today’s newborns reach parenthood, just a quarter of existing schools are likely to remain open.
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