It’s not just Ukip that’s changing Cameron’s mind about immigration

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[/audioplayer]It is easy to mock David Cameron on immigration. Under pressure from the public and from Ukip, he’s having to hot-foot it to a tougher position on the free movement of labour within the European Union. Ideas dismissed as unworkable only a few months ago are now on the table. But it’s not all political positioning. There really is a serious case for Britain to be treated differently from eurozone countries when it comes to freedom of movement.

Whoever ends up in government after the next election, Britain’s relationship with the EU is going to have to change. Why? Because Britain is one of only a handful of EU members that will never join the single currency. A few years ago, it looked as if several of the larger eastern European countries would also stay out. Now, however, they view membership of the euro as part of their defence against a resurgent Russia. Most of the new-accession countries will be in the single currency by the end of the next decade. By 2030, Britain, Denmark and Sweden could be the only EU states outside it.

Of these three countries, Britain has much the largest economy. So if the eurozone economies converge — and they must converge if their union is to survive — then Britain, with its different business cycle, will end up as the eurozone’s safety valve whenever unemployment spikes.

Indeed, there are signs of that happening already. In 2006, before everything went wrong, fewer than 10,000 Spaniards were issued with UK National Insurance numbers. Last year it was more than 50,000. You can see the same trend in terms of immigration from Portugal — from under 10,000 NI numbers issued to more than 30,000 — and Italy, which has gone from just over 11,000 to 44,000 on the same measure.