It’s over. Labour’s only hope is the next generation

No one in the Labour party now believes the next election is winnable. Last year, there were a few who believed in an outside chance of victory. There are still some who hope that some unexpected catastrophe might yet befall David Cameron. There will be a collective brave face put on by delegates who gather in Brighton next week — but this falls well short of genuine conviction. There is a difference between loyalty and delusion. This time, no one is in any doubt about the defeat in prospect.

A rabbit could, of course, be pulled out of the hat at conference. But there would be little point. The polls are even worse than they were before Peter Mandelson’s return to the Cabinet. The day before Gordon Brown gave Mandelson the job of Business Secretary, the Tories had a 12-point lead. This has now widened to 16 points. No government in postwar history has gone on from such a position, at such a late stage, to win an election.

All the arguments are expended. The party’s internal polling suggests that the British public still has no great affection for David Cameron, but this is rather cold comfort. It has never really been necessary for the electorate to love a Conservative leader in order to vote Tory — despair with the government can be enough.

Few voted for Margaret Thatcher in 1979 because she provoked genuine affection. They did so because their patience had run out with the Callaghan administration. No one voted for John Major in 1992 because he had ‘sealed the deal’ with the British public. Rarely do voters decide to invest all their hopes and dreams in a political leader. When this does happen — as it did in 1997, possibly 1964 and certainly 1945, the vote goes to Labour.