It’s still the ‘nasty party’

A melancholy anniversary recently passed virtually unnoticed: it is now more than a decade since the Conservative party fell behind in the polls. Never has a major opposition party been so unpopular, with so many, for so long.

If Conservatives are ever to govern again, they must do three things. They have honestly to appreciate why their party has come to this pass. They must eschew false comforts and snake-oil remedies, which will only prolong their agony. And, above all, Tories must transform the way they operate. Unless the culture of the party changes, it will never reconnect with a country that it now treats as a foreign land.

The scale of the Tory malaise is unprecedented. There have been more than 500 published polls in the past ten years. The Tories have led in only five – all in one week of September 2000 when the level of petrol tax was the issue of the moment. That surreal week apart, Labour has now led in the polls for a whole decade. What makes this even more extraordinary is that Labour has been in government for six of those ten years. No opposition has ever before failed so comprehensively to exploit traditional mid-term dissatisfaction with government.

The Tory failure to attract support is all the more striking because there is clear evidence of disaffection with the Labour government. The mood of excitement and anticipation that was tangible when Labour swept into power began to wane a long time ago. Most voters now place Labour somewhere on a scale between serious disappointment and active dislike. War has provided a respite in the polls but, underlying this, more than half the electorate is dissatisfied with Tony Blair’s performance as prime minister, and with the record of his government as a whole. Most people’s experience is that the NHS, public transport and crime rates have got worse under Labour.