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[/audioplayer]Yet again, the Conservative party has reminded us that it is quite capable of losing the next election. The events leading up to Maria Miller’s resignation are entirely consistent with a party that is so gauche, so accident-prone, so surprised by basic news events that it can make Ed Miliband seem positively presidential. The government had intended this week’s political news to be about its success on welfare reform. Instead, the theme has been one of Tory chaos, as MPs publicly debated the survival of the Culture Secretary before she eventually chose to walk the plank.
The blame starts with the Prime Minister. He should need no telling about expenses scandals. Not so long ago, he dealt quickly and effectively with Tory MPs who had been exposed by the Daily Telegraph’s investigation — in stark contrast with the prevaricating Gordon Brown. Now, it seems it is Mr Cameron’s turn to regard a public issue as an arm-wrestling match with the press, rather than a simple matter of probity. He raised no questions about Mrs Miller’s behaviour, nor did he insist on a semi-decent apology. His ‘move along, nothing to see here’ approach only made things worse. For a former public relations man, such misjudgment is striking.
The theory advocated by Mrs Miller’s allies — that she was the victim of a media ‘witch hunt’ to somehow avenge her role in the politicians’ charter for press regulation — does not stand up to scrutiny. Few would argue that Mrs Miller was a decisive actor in the Leveson drama. The link between her personal expenses and the Leveson report into the press was first made by her own special adviser, who warned the Telegraph against investigating the woman who was deciding the future of press freedom. That such a threat was made proves why no politician should have the press in their remit.
The explanation for the public outrage was far simpler. Mrs Miller was found guilty of breaching the parliamentary code of conduct for not co-operating with the standards commissioner’s investigation into her expenses.
Having chosen to fight, No. 10 seems to have had no plan for winning. Normally, the drill is to line up MPs who can go out to defend the embattled minister. No such arrangements were made. MPs have been stunned at the disorder in No. 10, the utter absence of a basic political operation or just the ability to even guess how all this would play out. The Spectator understands that No. 10 was informed of the result of the investigation into Mrs Miller’s expenses in February, so the Prime Minister’s team had weeks to formulate a coherent response. They didn’t.
The promotion of Sajid Javid to Culture Secretary is rather baffling. He is one of the most promising members of the government — the son of a bus conductor, whose talents took him to be a vice-president of Chase Manhattan bank by the age of 25. He knows more about finance than the rest of the Treasury team put together. It is encouraging to see such Tory talent reach the Cabinet. But assigning him to the culture brief looks a bit like asking George Soros to run the Glastonbury festival. At a time when George Osborne’s team is hardly overflowing with ideas on how to revive the economy, the absence of a genuine financial expert will be felt.
There is another talented Tory who could do with a promotion. Lynton Crosby is running the election campaign — and hopes to repeat the success he had with Boris Johnson’s two victories in running for Mayor of London. But the last few days have identified another vacancy: that of chief of staff. There should, ideally, be someone who is capable of anticipating problems, and dealing with them before they arise. If Crosby were assigned this role between now and the election, there would be fewer unforced errors. And a government that gives a better message.
To win the next election, the Conservatives need to get everything right between now and polling day. They cannot afford more self-inflicted wounds. The disorder exposed in the last few days shows that the party is capable of committing political suicide. Michael Gove said Mr Cameron showed ‘humanity’ in seeking to protect Mrs Miller as a friend and colleague. Not a weakness, he said, but a strength. Maybe so, but in that case the Prime Minister needs by his side a harder soul, who can explain the consequences of sticking by a millionaire colleague found to have wrongly claimed thousands of pounds of expenses.
The Prime Minister should either have dropped Mrs Miller, or mounted a proper operation to keep her. He did neither, which is why his party ended up in this mess. It fits a depressing pattern: a party whose formidable achievements are eclipsed by its mishaps. The economy is growing, a jobs miracle is under way and the Bank of England links this to welfare reform. There are hundreds of new schools and thousands of newly independent academies. But the Tories will only be able to talk about these successes if they move the agenda on from their own errors. At the moment, the coalition’s achievements risk becoming the greatest story never told.
George Osborne’s budget had put the wind back into the sails of the Conservative party. Now, the ship seems to have steered itself back towards a disastrous storm. Lucky Ed Miliband.
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