It’s crunch time for Starmer’s ‘one in, one out’ migrant deal

The entente is still very much cordiale. Talks between Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are ongoing on the third day of the Anglo-French summit. The key issue is migration: how best to stop the constant flow of Channel crossings that have seen 20,000 arrive here this year already?

Both, publicly, are singing from the same hymn sheet, with lashings of Gallic sweetness. In remarks this morning, the French President praised the relationship between London and Paris. Both nations, he insisted, share ‘the same resolve to fight’ people smugglers. The Prime Minister spoke, again, of ‘new tactics’ and a ‘new intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs’.

The big solution, expected to be unveiled later today, is a ‘one-in, one-out’ deal. For each individual taken back, France would transfer one asylum seeker to the UK, who would likely be someone with a family connection or genuine reason to seek sanctuary here. British officials are, understandably, pushing for a high number; the French are believed to be more resistant. The hope is that if a return deal works, it would deter future crossings, allowing Starmer to claim that he, finally, has ‘stopped the boats’.

Of course, like Rwanda, this deal faces numerous practical and political hurdles. Who decides who comes in and out? What does the deal mean for the EU and the Dublin Convention? Is such a deal even legal under the UN Refugee Convention? Expect those questions and more to be put to Starmer and Macron when they appear at a joint press conference later today.