Were Kemi Badenoch not to be unveiled as the next Conservative party leader in a couple of weeks it would now go down as a very notable upset.
Exposed to a demanding hour of cross-examination on the GB News leadership special, Badenoch landed her pitch almost perfectly. As the strong favourite with the bookies, Badenoch probably only needed a draw against her sole remaining opponent, Robert Jenrick. But for all his fluency, she did rather better than that. A show of hands at the end among the audience of several hundred Tory members broke overwhelmingly in her favour.
Trust me, I’m an engineer, she told her party
Perhaps Jenrick blundered by winning the toss and yet deciding to go first, meaning the audience was fully warmed up by the time Badenoch took to the stage. He has come so far in such a short space of time since he resigned from the Sunak administration last December that it is easy to imagine him as a future party leader too.
But he is unlikely to be the very next leader. Were one looking for a straw to clutch on his behalf it would be that the live studio audience appeared mainly formed of metropolitan and younger Tories. Perhaps out in the shires, members will be more moved by his flagship immigration pledges than Badenoch’s ability to articulate the first principles of conservatism with such thrilling conviction.
With ballots now sent out and voting open, this debate was Jenrick’s sole guaranteed opportunity to change the game in his favour, but a transformative moment simply did not happen. Even if there is another televised encounter next week – and I’m betting there won’t be – the chances are that the bulk of grassroots members will already have made their choice by then, so he would be fighting over scraps.
If Badenoch does go on to win this contest then she will have done so without giving up any hostages to fortune by way of specific policy pledges. She certainly came under pressure from some supporters to match the Jenrick pledge to take Britain out of the European human rights regime. But she would not budge on the matter, telling friends she was determined to win on her own terms.
Trust me, I’m an engineer, she told her party, even daring to set out what she saw as some positive aspects of ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights) membership and highlight difficult issues which would have to be resolved before leaving it could be a serious proposition.
In layman’s terms, she was able to show that she has got a bit about her. Whether the Tory parliamentary party is leadable and can be more than a comic rump is yet to be seen. But if, like me, you tend to the view that British politics is ready for its next big thing and that Keir Starmer isn’t it, then it is refreshing indeed to sense a genuine contender for the role heading centre-stage.
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