It’s official: the Tories believe in JC. Following last week’s party conference in Birmingham, James Cleverly has this afternoon topped the penultimate ballot of Tory MPs. The Shadow Home Secretary stormed into the lead with 39 MPs, overtaking both Robert Jenrick on 31 and Kemi Badenoch on 30 to officially confirm his status as the new frontrunner for Tory leader. After a disappointing showing in the previous ballot – in which Cleverly tied Tom Tugendhat with 21 MPs – the momentum shift puts him in prime position for the final round of voting tomorrow.
Cleverly picked up an extra 18 votes – some 15 per cent of the entire parliamentary party. His performance at the party conference went down well with the Tory faithful: a Conservative Home survey this week found that he had overtaken Jenrick both on members’ first preferences and in the final head-to-head. His speech was regarded by members as the best too. In such circumstances, it is hardly unexpected that MPs are joining a campaign with momentum – though even Cleverly’s staunchest supporters will be delighted after winning by seven votes: the largest margin thus far.
Tom Tugendhat meanwhile exits the contest after winning just 20 MPs, one less than he previously polled. The former army officer gave an underwhelming speech last Wednesday and did not have the kind of game-changing conference that he needed to progress in the contest. Both party members and parliamentary colleagues were unimpressed with his efforts, with Tugendhat apparently unable to pick up any of Mel Stride's backers. A chunk of his 20 supporters now look likely to transfer their votes to James Cleverly. He and Tugendhat were both scrapping for votes on the centre and left of the party: a stronger conference performance gave Cleverly the clear edge.
With MPs now claiming that Cleverly is now nailed-on for the final two, the key question they are discussing is who becomes the candidate of the right? A single vote today separates Robert Jenrick on 31 and Kemi Badenoch on 30. He lost two while she gained a pair, with neither having an especially good party conference. The fate of the two right-wingers could now depend on Tom Tugendhat's backers. For Jenrick – who clashed with Tugendhat over the Special Forces last week – it is an unenviable position to be in, coming just four weeks after he topped the ballot comfortably.
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