James Forsyth: Insurgents are remaking British politics

Next year will decide the fate of the United Kingdom. The Scottish independence referendum on the 18th of September could destroy the Union, and when we sit down to Christmas lunch in 2014, it could be to the background of independence negotiations. We may all be waiting to see what the Queen says about the end of the Union in her Christmas message.

Too much of England is still struggling to take the prospect seriously. The Scottish government’s independence white paper struggled to make it onto the front pages of the next day’s London papers. Why? Because there is an assumption — based on remarkably steady opinion polls — that the Scots will vote no. But among those most involved in the fight, there is a growing fear that the yes campaign’s money and simpler message could make this a remarkably close run thing.

If that weren’t enough national drama for one year, 2014 could also be the year in which a party advocating leaving the European Union wins the European elections in this country. This would not instantly change the nature of Britain’s relationship with the EU. But it would make it nigh-on-impossible for Ed Miliband to continue to oppose a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.

This volatility in our normally placid politics has been caused by the emergence of new parties whose explicit aim is the upending of the established order. The Scottish National party and Ukip thrive on their otherness. They are not interested in joining a consensus or being lauded as responsible and respectable, they proudly stand apart from the other parties. They are cleverly capitalising on popular discontent with the established political order.

Both of these parties are nationalist — but at opposite ends of the political spectrum. The SNP is essentially a party of the left, part of its argument for independence is that a sovereign Scotland would be a more socially democratic country.