Japan is running out of rice. Stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in decades, prompting fears that emergency reserves may need to be accessed. Prices have hit a 30-year high as private companies held just 1.56 million tons in June, the lowest level since 1999 and 20 per cent less than the previous year.
Partly this is just the result of a poor crop caused by unfavourable climatic conditions – high temperatures combined with water shortages. But there is more to it than that: whereas Japan would once have shrugged off an occasional bad year, the poor state of the farming industry in Japan means seasonal fluctuations in yield are now more serious.
The truth is that the locals have been eating less and less rice for years
With an increasingly elderly workforce and more and more abandoned rice paddies, the industry is in serious decline. The Mainichi newspaper carried out a survey of 107 municipalities and found that 40 per cent of rice paddies had been left unmanaged or had shrunk in size. The paper quoted Minehiro Nakashima, professor emeritus at Waseda university and advisor to the rice growers association, who estimated that Japan had lost about half of its rice terraces since 1970.
The young aren’t much interested in becoming farmers anymore. It’s hard, unglamourous work, in depopulated areas where there is virtually nothing to do. In 25 years here, I’ve yet to meet anyone who aspired to farm; almost every young person I meet wants to be either a public officer (safe and decent pension) or a Youtuber.
Farming is becoming a bit of a lost art and there is no oriental equivalent of Clarkson’s Farm to give the industry a PR boost. It was striking when the previous prime minister Yoshihide Suga was presenting himself to the country, much was made of his farming family background. For some, it was considered quaint and earthily authentic, a bit like having a toolmaker for a dad. Others felt it just marked Suga out as a bit of a hick.
The other contributing factor to the rice crisis, according to the authorities, is the massive influx of tourists. Japan welcomed 17.78 million in the first half of 2024, a million more than the pre-pandemic years. The huge rise is attributed to the relatively weak yen making Japan a highly unlikely budget destination.
The visitors have contributed greatly to the Japanese economy of course, but it is also fair to say they have become something of a pest, quite literally in the sense that in their quest to eat ‘authentic’ Japanese food they are munching through 51,000 tons of rice, according to government estimates. This is nearly three times the rate of the previous year.
If this weren’t serious, it would be rather funny, as in doing so they are in danger of becoming more Japanese than the Japanese. For the truth is that the locals have been eating less and less rice for years. The Japanese per capita consumption of the supposed staple has halved in 60 years from 118kg a year to 51kg. This phenomenon, even has its own name: ‘Kome banare’ (rice separation).
There are various reasons for this, most salient of which is the veritable smorgasbord of alternatives now available in modern global Japan. Then there is the amount of hard work involved in rice preparation. First you need to lug the heavy rice bag back from the ‘supa’ (supermarket); then wash it (tedious), cook it (time-consuming), and then clean out the rice cooker afterwards (tedious and time-consuming).
When every Japanese family did this it didn’t seem such a big deal, but with more women working and with artisanal bakeries all over the place, often opened up by ex-salarymen liberated from the daily grind of the office, a quick western style breakfast makes a lot more sense.
It is all rather sad – a traditional Japanese breakfast, rice, grilled fish, pickles and miso soup is a rather sublime confection. But it takes a lot of time and effort and is now increasingly only obtainable at traditional Japanese inns (ryokan) served up for tourists or nostalgic locals.
This cultural shift explains why the rice crisis has been more of an international story than a domestic one. No one here seems too bothered. No state of emergency has been declared.
Which is in itself alarming. Perhaps a state of emergency should be declared – a cultural emergency. Rice has always been fundamental to Japanese culture. The very name of the country in ancient scrolls was recorded as ‘the land where abundant rice shoots ripen beautifully’. Rice was always treated with reverence, and the crop is still blessed by the emperor each year. The word for rice ‘gohan’ is incorporated into the words for breakfast ‘asagohan’, lunch ‘hirugohan’ and dinner ‘bangohan’ meaning a meal without rice was once conceptually unimaginable.
It is all too imaginable now, and if current trends persist, that Japan’s ‘rice separation’ may go from being a process to an outcome. One day, the most rice positive people here may well be the tourists hurrying to sample their increasingly inauthentic meals, while stocks last.
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