Jockeying for position in post-coalition politics

‘Coalition is like a see-saw,’ David Cameron used to say. The line, delivered with that confident smile which says politics is child’s play to me, summed up Cameron’s approach to the job in the first months of his government.

Back then, he thought it was his and Clegg’s job to shift the weight around so that no one fell off the see-saw. This was based on the premise that the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister could control events; they could ensure that any victory for the social democratic wing of the Liberal Democrats was followed by something that pleased the Tory right.

But Cameron and Clegg don’t have the see-saw to themselves any more. The rowdier elements in their two parties are jumping up and down on the ends of it at every opportunity, desperately trying to throw the other lot off.

This roughhousing reflects a general loss of coalition affection. The two leaders now have to pay as much attention to party management as coalition management. Those who have been into No. 10 to discuss policy in the last few weeks report that the restless mood of the right pops up in nearly every conversation. The chief whip’s warnings about parliamentary opinion — he’s renamed the Thatcherite No Turning Back Group of Tory MPs the ‘Don’t Turn Your Back Group’ — are being taken increasingly seriously.  

In private, some of the Prime Minister’s closest allies fret about the gap between him and his party widening. This worry has led to Cameron executing a strategic shift. On Monday, he gave his first speech about what he would do if it wasn’t for those pesky Liberal Democrats. He laid out a whole series of changes to the welfare state that a Conservative government with a majority would make.