No amount of presidential bluster or White House spin can disguise the fact that the Biden administration appears increasingly clueless about what to do about the war in Gaza. Having tied US policy to Israel’s war aims – specifically the destruction of Hamas – US president Joe Biden now finds himself in a tight spot as the death toll in Gaza continues to rise. It is not entirely his fault: backing Israel – both militarily and politically – is a longstanding pillar of US Middle East policy, regardless of which political party is in power. Biden was merely reaffirming this when he stood behind Israel’s ‘right to defend itself’ in the wake of the Hamas terror arracks of 7 October. Washington insiders were convinced that such public and unconditional support was also the best means of maximising American influence behind the scenes.
That, unfortunately, isn’t quite how things have panned out. Israel has stuck to its stated goal of rooting out Hamas, even as the casualties mount: according to the Hamas-run health ministry, 17,000 people – including more than 10,000 women and children –have died in total over the past two months of the war. This has prompted growing calls for the White House to do more to restrain Israel. The response so far from the White House has been confused to say the least, leaving the administration looking like one more than a powerless bystander in the Middle East war.
Biden has no real ideas about what to do or how best to achieve his aims in the Gaza war
Reports have begun to emerge that America is pressuring Israel to end its operation in Gaza and war against Hamas ‘in a month’. Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, made it clear that Israel has until early January to wrap up its ground operation in Gaza. At the same time, according to other sources, Blinken stressed to Israeli officials that the Americans continued to support their campaign to destroy the terrorist group’s military capabilities. This statement is surely incompatible with an end to fighting any time soon, certainly not in a month’s time. So much for strong and clear leadership from America’s most high profile and senior diplomatic player.
Biden, meanwhile, is facing growing political pressure domestically. The heavy death toll is causing concern among grass-roots Democrats and particularly younger supporters of the party. An NBC News poll published last month found that just 34 per cent of registered voters approve of how Biden is handling the war. A Gallup survey this week suggested 63 per cent of Democrats oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza. None of this will be lost on Biden who is facing an uphill battle for re-election in 2024. Losing the votes of unhappy American-Arab and Muslim voters in swing states like Michigan could prove costly.
The problems for Biden are mounting on the international front too, not least at the UN security council. The US has already used its veto to block a council resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire on the basis that the draft did not explicitly criticise Hamas.
The bigger problem is that Biden has no real ideas about what to do or how best to achieve his aims in the Gaza war. Washington has not come up with anything that is a viable alternative to the military strategy being pursued by the Israelis: it is not possible for Israel to destroy Hamas – an aim that Washington supports – without putting Palestinians lives at risk. Nor is there much evidence that Washington has any real inkling of what kind of political settlement is achievable for a post-war Gaza. This is shaping up to be a foreign policy disaster with untold wider consequences for the region and the world. Everything else is mere bluster from an increasingly beleaguered administration.
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