Keir Starmer's Russia problem is here to stay

Keir Starmer will travel to Berlin this afternoon to join European leaders for a ‘mini-summit’ in support of Ukraine following two days of talks between president Volodymyr Zelensky and American officials. Zelensky has been in the German capital since yesterday, locked in talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner to hammer out the terms of a peace deal on the war in Ukraine that can then be presented to Russia. US representatives have also been invited to this afternoon’s mini-summit – due to kick off shortly after 5.30 p.m. UK time.

Overnight, Witkoff declared that ‘significant progress’ had been made with Zelensky. There has seemingly been a major development: the Ukrainian president reportedly revealed that he was willing to drop Kyiv’s ambition of joining Nato – a key Kremlin demand – in exchange for sufficiently water-tight ‘Article 5-like’ security guarantees from the US and other allies. According to officials briefed on today’s meeting between Zelensky, Witkoff and Kusher, the US is still pressuring Ukraine to give up territory in the Donbass to Russia – another key demand made by Putin. Zelensky has repeatedly stated his refusal to concede territory to Moscow in this way; it is a proposition that is very unpopular in Ukraine itself: according to one poll, up to 75 per cent of Ukrainians oppose it.

Crammed into the packed schedule in Berlin today is also a joint press conference by Zelensky and German chancellor Friedrich Merz. We will have to wait until that for any potential updates on what progress – if any – has been made with the US on these outstanding issues.

Hosting this round of shuttle diplomacy can be notched up as a triumphant moment for Merz, who is emerging as the figurehead in Europe’s efforts to remain relevant to the discussion around Ukraine’s future and security on the continent. Nonetheless, none of this guarantees that anything discussed over the past days and coming hours will be acceptable to the Kremlin or, in the grand scheme of things, move the conflict any closer to a conclusion.

It’s not just in Berlin where Russia is the main topic of conversation today. Two key speeches by senior defence figures here in Britain will address the direct threat they believe Moscow poses on a domestic front. Blaise Metreweli will use her first speech as MI6’s new chief to warn that the front line against Russia is ‘everywhere’ and that Putin’s ‘export of chaos’ strategy isn’t going anywhere. Meanwhile, Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton has warned that ‘the price of peace is increasing’ and that Russia ‘threatens the whole of Nato, including the UK’. The whole country, he says, should be ‘stepping up’.

Both speeches can be seen as a pitch-rolling exercise, designed to focus the minds of British politicians (and their foot-dragging over defence spending) and public alike on the Russia problem – which, regardless of the outcome of talks in Berlin, shows no signs of going away any time soon.