Since becoming Conservative leader in November, Kemi Badenoch has taken a restrained approach to saying what she’d do if she wins the next election. Given the slapdash ‘policy by press release’ approach of recent Conservative governments, it’s easy to see why Badenoch has been keen to avoid making careless policy announcements. But four years of silence won’t convince frustrated voters to turn back to the Tories. Announcing policy as Leader of the Opposition is a bit like planning to open a restaurant: you don’t need to reveal the whole menu, but you do need to let people know what cuisine you’ll be serving.
The Conservatives have an opportunity to prove they are the party best-placed to tackle immigration
With today’s announcement on migration policy, Badenoch is finally breaking her silence – and taking a step in the right direction on the issue that most troubles voters: immigration.
Promising to ensure that “living [in Britain] has to mean something”, Badenoch has pledged to double the eligibility period for long-term settlement from five years to ten, prevent criminals and benefit claimants from settling here, and bar illegal migrants from ever seeking permanent residency. Combined with a numerical cap on the number of visas issued, these policies would surely help to bring down the overall level of net migration.
However, the biggest strength of these policies is that they would allow a future Conservative government to limit the long-term damage of the migration surge which has taken place over the last few years: the so-called ‘Boriswave’.
After promising to ‘take back control’ of our nation’s borders, Boris Johnson’s government oversaw a sweeping liberalisation of the migration rules, under the guise of a net ‘points-based system’. Caps on non-EU workers were removed, salary thresholds were lowered, and a new social care visa was issued, with no overall limit on the number of claimants.
Predictably, immigration spiked, exceeding one million people each in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The vast majority of these migrants came from non-EU countries like India, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Just 5 per cent of visas handed out in 2022-23 went to migrants who are likely to be net lifetime contributors, according to Karl Williams at the Centre for Policy Studies. Hardly ‘the best and brightest’ whom Boris said his plan was designed to attract.
Under the current system, after just five years in the UK, those on work or family visas are eligible for Indefinite Leave To Remain, or ILR. This status gives migrants access to social housing and benefits, as well as surcharge-free access to the NHS. For those keeping score, the first ‘Boriswave’ migrants will become eligible for ILR in 2026, with millions more becoming eligible over the next few years. This is a ticking financial time bomb, with this cohort set to cost the British taxpayer billions of pounds over their lifetimes.
In November, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Britain’s ‘open borders experiment’ had been a mistake. But if that’s the case, why should taxpayers have to live with the costs of this error? Why should five years of low-paid work translate into a lifetime of eligibility for state support?
Back in December, in a blog post for the Adam Smith Institute, I argued that extending the ILR eligibility period would allow the government to defuse this ticking financial time bomb. I was not alone in calling for this change, and credit is also due to Guy Dampier of the newly-minted Prosperity Institute for his efforts. By extending the eligibility period, a future government could choose whether or not to reissue work visas to those who have arrived over the last few years, giving them the opportunity to limit the long-term harms of the ‘Boriswave’.
Badenoch’s new policy would allow a future Conservative government to do just that. This isn’t just a change of direction for the Conservatives, but an explicit step towards undoing their previous error.
However, given the failure of successive Conservative governments to get migration under control, many voters will rightly be sceptical about the party’s ability to put these ideas into practice. Efforts to rebuild trust are made even more difficult when some senior shadow cabinet ministers continue to defend the ‘Boriswave’, as Priti Patel did last week.
The willingness of the public to trust announcements like these will depend on the willingness of Conservative politicians to repent for their party’s sins – and their ability to keep banging the drum for ideas like these. With Reform UK remaining tight-lipped on the details of their own policy platform, the Conservatives have an opportunity to prove they are the party best-placed to tackle immigration in the long-term.
Kemi Badenoch is leading her party in the right direction, but she must turn this announcement into a fully-fledged campaign, maintaining momentum and forcing Starmer to concede that he is not serious about righting the wrongs of his predecessors. Damascene conversions can be believed, but only if accompanied by the corresponding zeal.
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