Given the complexities of modern government, with all its pitfalls and unforeseeable reverses, pointing out when ministers have made a mess of things is certainly an important part of the repertoire of opposition – the equivalent of a boxer’s jab in our pugilistic political system. But the ‘it’s a shambles’ method of politics can only take an opposition party or its leader so far.
On the rare occasions that Labour has talked about illegal migration across the English Channel since Boris Johnson became PM and Priti Patel was appointed Home Secretary, this has been its favoured line of attack.
Earlier in the month Keir Starmer told BBC Radio 4: ‘The Home Secretary repeatedly says in strong language what she is going to do about the immediate problem and delivers absolutely nothing.’
A week or so ago shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds declared: ‘The Home Secretary’s incompetence on this matter is dangerous.’ Given the tragic drownings in the Channel that followed a few days later he may feel entitled to congratulate himself on his prescience.
The ‘it’s a shambles’ method of politics can only take an opposition party or its leader so far
But there comes a point, often when an issue has risen up the list of voter concerns, when an opposition must add depth to its message. If it wants to deliver a knock-out blow it certainly has to find a strong and electorally appealing answer to the question: well, what would you do then?
For all the failings of Johnson and Patel in their struggle to stem the flow of migrant boats, this is where Starmer’s Labour appears doomed to failure. Its answers involve a rehash of its failed Brexit positioning, via the claim that being gentler with France will somehow lead to a better outcome, and via its own commitment to provide ‘safe routes’ so that those presently entering the UK illegally and perilously can in future do so legally and safely.
On Friday this even led Labour to take the side of petulant President Macron in his ‘lettergate’ row with Britain. Boris Johnson’s public letter to Macron, in which he had proposed possible solutions, was a ‘grave error of judgment’, claimed Mr Thomas-Symonds. ‘This is a humiliation for a prime minister and a home secretary who have completely lost control of the situation… it’s ended up within a matter of hours with the government being excluded from these vital talks,’ he added. This ‘Britain bad, abroad good’ mindset has damaged Labour before with key groups of voters as it fails a basic test of patriotism.
Meanwhile the idea that providing new ‘safe routes’ for those gathering on the French coast can solve the crisis barely stands a moment’s scrutiny unless one envisages such routes being made available to unlimited numbers of people in poor countries who would like to live in our rich one.
As Peter Lilley noted in a House of Lords debate on Thursday: ‘This simply would not work. Anyone who was refused… would still have exactly the same incentive as now to enter the UK illegally by boat… Many more people will apply for asylum if such a simple route is established.’
So talk of safe routes, which goes down very well with Labour’s activist base, is simply code for giving up on the battle to stop the asylum regime being abused – and a way of facilitating higher volumes of immigration.
These Labour positions aren’t a haymaker but rather the party leading with its chin. Should the Red Wall voters that Labour lost and needs to win back start noticing them, or should the Tories actually succeed in getting a grip on the issue – which currently seems a less likely prospect, I’ll grant you – then Labour will be the party in the most trouble by far.
The recent opinion poll pattern of Tory ratings sinking without Labour ones surging ahead is already pointing to the fact that the Conservatives are losing the support of voters who wish to see a much tougher approach taken on migration matters, not an even weaker one.
I knocked on enough doors in by-elections in Red Wall seats when Nigel Farage’s Ukip was in its heyday to know that it is working class ‘old Labour’ voters who feel strongest on this issue. It is their neighbourhoods which have lost social cohesion and their working lives that have been most disrupted by the knock-on effects of uncontrolled immigration.
While the Tories won many of these voters over in 2019, there are plenty more who stuck with Labour but could be persuaded to switch should the government find a way to deliver on this issue while the opposition is seen to push for a still more open-door approach.
So we have a paradox where the issue that is causing most mid-term damage to the Conservatives is likely to do most long-term further electoral harm to Labour. Complacent Keir is there for the taking so long as the Tories actually do something decisive to bolster the borders.
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