Labour politicians are already preparing for opposition. The race to succeed Gordon is on

Over lunch about a year ago, I tried to tease out the intentions of someone tipped as a possible successor to Gordon Brown. He was feigning optimism and loyalty to the anointed leader-in-waiting, so I advanced some hypothetical scenarios involving various MPs being run over by buses. So would he maybe…

‘Me? God, no,’ he replied, cutting me off. ‘Forget it. As soon as this party gets into opposition then — boof.’ He mimed an explosion with his hands. ‘Trust me. The queue to be Labour’s William Hague will not be a long one.’

Here were two striking assumptions: that Mr Brown was certain to lose, and that the Labour coalition would fast unravel. This, it must be said, is the minority view. Until quite recently, most Labour MPs believed they would defeat David Cameron — but even now, those who grudgingly concede the possibility of defeat think that Labour’s spell in opposition would be short-lived. The talk is of Mr Cameron being a 21st-century version of Edward Heath, and of Labour taking a ‘short bath’ — a refreshing dip on the opposition benches followed by a return to business as usual and another decade or so of progressive governance.

Although it doesn’t do to admit it, Mr Brown’s departure in the reasonably foreseeable future has always been on the cards. Soon after he entered No. 10, the Prime Minister’s aides would say privately that he would fight just one election. Even he recognised he could not plausibly promise to lead Britain to the end of the next decade. If the Brown formula succeeded then Ed Balls, his protégé and author of his better ideas, would have a reasonable claim to succeed him. ‘Look at the sheer pace of what Ed’s doing, tearing up A-levels with minimal consultation,’ says one Cabinet minister.