Sebastian Payne

Labour’s lead doesn’t mean Miliband’s a winner

He’s the main beneficiary of the failure of the boundary reforms, and he’s also leading the most popular party, according to the latest poll from YouGov. Things are looking rosy for Labour leader Ed Miliband, with his party holding a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.

Labour is also the party of choice on the NHS, education, taxation and unemployment. Of course, it’s not exactly unprecedented for an opposition party to be ahead in the polls at this stage in a parliament, and it’s worth looking at Miliband’s own position too when assessing whether he can lead his party to glory in 2015. When it comes to net satisfaction with his performance as leader, he continues to poll above Cameron:

But it’s worth remembering that the Labour leader is still five points behind Cameron on who would make the best Prime Minister. There’s a big difference between doing your job as leader of the opposition and being able to lead the country. Last week, only 31 per cent said he would be well suited to being Prime Minister, compared with 46 per cent for Cameron and 36 per cent for Boris.

This suggests the public is looking for alternatives but is not yet convinced Miliband is the person to deliver what they’re searching for. The YouGov polling found only four per cent of those surveyed thought he was a natural leader, and only five per cent described him as ‘charismatic’ and ‘good in a crisis’ while the Prime Minister scores 13 and 19 per cent on these issues respectively.

As this parliament edges closer to the 2015 election, the pressure will build on Ed to capitalise on the coalition’s troubles. Unless he manages to persuade the nation that he is a credible leader, he may struggle to take Labour’s current lead back into government.

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