It’s 7pm and the Channel 4/YouGov poll is out: Lab40, Tory36, LibDem13. Now, 40% isn’t bad for Labour – but a lead that’s shrunk from 11 points to 4 emphasises the volatility of polls in an era where party identification and tribal loyalties have never been weaker. We must factor in the post-conference bounce, so the “real” Labour lead is probably 7 points – but less in the marginals.
If Brown goes next week, the bar is high for him: he needs to do better than Blair. A reduced majority will be emasculating, and he risks losing his majority. What a plonker he’d look. But then again – will the Tories be more beatable in a year or two years’ time? I suspect not. So he has to make a gamble. And for a hesitant chap like Brown, the decision will be excruciating.
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