Labour’s manifesto launch today sees the party seeking to confound expectations. Even though the party would prefer to fight a comfortable election campaign on the NHS, the fact remains that no party has won when behind in the polls on both the ratings of its leader and on the economy. And so the first page of the party’s manifesto, which was released last night, says this:
‘Our manifesto begins with the Budget Responsibility Lock we offer the British people. It is the basis for all our plans in this manifesto because it is by securing our national finances that we are able to secure the family finances of the working people of Britain.’
That last in particular sounds like the kind of thing the Tories have been saying for a little while. The Budget Responsibility Lock means, in the words of that first page:
‘Every policy in this manifesto is paid for. Not one commitment requires additional borrowing. We are the first party to make that pledge and with this manifesto it is delivered. We will legislate to require all major parties to have their manifesto commitments independently audited by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
‘A Labour government will cut the deficit every year The first line of Labour’s first Budget will be: “This Budget cuts the deficit every year”. This manifesto sets out that we will only lay a Budget before the House of Commons that cuts the deficit every year, which the OBR will independently verify.
‘We will get national debt falling and a surplus on the current budget as soon as possible in the next parliament. This manifesto sets out that we will not compromise on this commitment.’
Miliband will today tell the launch of the manifesto that ‘in recent days you have seen the Conservatives throwing spending promises around with no idea where the money is coming from, promises which are unfunded, unfair and unbelievable’.
Politically, the party is trying to confound expectations that it is the same old spendthrift Labour that wrecked the economy. This will be hard to do in just a few weeks before polling day, but as with its efforts to improve Ed Miliband’s personal appeal to voters, Labour knows it needs to do as much as it can. Tory sources are calling it ‘desperate’ and a ‘late in the day’ attempt from Labour to ‘deal with their biggest problem’.
But the important word to note in these pledges is ‘additional’. Labour is promising no ‘additional borrowing’, with all its manifesto pledges ‘paid for’. The party is aiming to balance the current budget, while the Tories want to balance the overall budget. Labour is not presenting a Tory-ish policy: it will still be borrowing more for investment (and given ‘investment’ is not something with a specific definition, there are a whole lot of things you can lump into that category and borrow money for), which leaves a significant gap between the two parties’ spending plans. But the plan for today is to try to narrow the polling gap between the two parties.
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