Labour last night held the seat of West Lancashire on a ten-point swing from the Tories. The constituency has gone red since 1992 and was mostly recently represented by Rosie Cooper, who chose to resign to become chair of the Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust. Turnout was just over 31 per cent, with Labour winning with 62 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives on 25 per cent.
It is a cliche, but perhaps the most surprising thing about this result is how unsurprising it is. The result was within less than half a per cent of national polling trends: currently Labour are on course to win a three figure majority that surpasses their 1997 result. The Reform party did better than expectations, taking 4.4 per cent and third place in the process, which perhaps indicates a hitherto unrealised threat to the Tories from the right. It’s the worst result for the Conservatives in West Lancashire’s history.
The new MP is Ashley Dalton, a lifelong Lancashire resident and part-time charity worker: the kind of by-election candidate who could have been dreamt up by Labour HQ. She played her part well on the night, calling her victory a ‘strong result’, arguing it sent ‘a clear message to Rishi Sunak’ and that the ‘people want a general election.’ Keir Starmer and the party frontbench have all tweeted a similar line: ‘After 13 years of Tory decline, it’s time for a Labour government.’
In short, the result of West Lancashire is a refrain we are likely to hear a lot of in the coming months: another bad night for Rishi Sunak and another good night for Keir Starmer.
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