‘In the new projection, which incorporates all polls published up to and including Sunday 25th April, The Conservatives would be thirty six short of a majority, with 289 seats - 11 more than they were projected to win last week. Labour are projected to win 234 seats and the Lib Dems 94. Labour’s projected total has fallen by nine, while the Lib Dem total has fallen by four. The Tories are projected to gain a 35.1 per cent share of the vote, Labour 27.0 and the Lib Dems 28.4.’
No party has significant forward momentum. With Cleggmania stalling the question is whether Labour’s decline is terminal. As the party becomes entrenched in third place and its leadership has a cat fight across the frontpages, the Tories are right to re-focus their campaign on Labour marginals. Kicking a man when he’s down may not be gentlemanly but it’s effective: Ed Balls, John Denham and Tony Wright are now fighting tense rearguards.