Ignore most snap verdicts from last night – the big winner in the French parliamentary election was still Marine Le Pen, whose third-place finish was perfectly placed. True, egged on by polls showing it on the verge of an absolute majority, the Rassemblement National (National Rally) over-promised and underdelivered. But, in the topsy-turvy world of French politics in 2024, to lose was to win.
Dirty work is about to be done at the Elysée
Le Pen fought a competent campaign and her voters aren’t blaming her for failing to take the top of the podium. She’s demonstrated again that she’s highly resilient. Not achieving a majority has done her a favour because none of what is now unfolding is her fault. The chaos was authored by president Macron. Le Pen will reap the rewards.
Her protégé Jordan Bardella did well, too, broadening the reach of the party towards the young. He’s more or less doubled the size of her group in parliament. She’s still in poll position for the 2027 presidential, where the electoral rules might be more favourable. So the gold medal for her, the wooden spoon for Macron who has plunged the country into la mouise. Dirty work is about to be done at the Elysée. The forces of the left and centre will struggle to create a government as an abyss looms; at the same time, the world is assembling in Paris ahead of the Olympics, which were supposed to have been a moment of triumph for Macron.
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The progress of the Rassemblement National is not imaginary. The populist-nationalist new right continues its long march contesting open borders, green energy, an ever-closer European Union and stagnating living standards. Le Pen had a handful of MPs in 2017, won 89 seats in 2022, and two years later has doubled that. It will become the largest single party force in the French parliament, even if bereft of allies, it is not currently able to forge a majority.
Much of the media in Paris is playing it cautiously this morning and avoiding the central problem which is Macron himself. He is the author of this entirely unnecessary drama. This is the culmination of a presidency that has failed, despite some good reforming intentions at the beginning, because he has unfortunately succeeded only in uniting France against him. For now, chaos rules. The bond markets have not reacted well to the sudden success of the radical left – comprising as it does the Socialist party, the Communist party, the EELV greens and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s ultra-left La France Insoumise, infested with Trots, extremists, woo-woo Greens, Islamists, superannuated comrades, Antifa activists, Israel haters, America haters, Nato haters, and wokistes.
These forces could enter into a cohabitation with Macron, who isn’t excluding the possibility of a deal. Such a manoeuvre might be constitutional but would be regarded as a coup by Rassemblement National voters. And France could move swiftly into a grave economic crisis. One hundred billion or more of social spending could quickly be added to the projected 5.5 per cent national deficit as prices on food and fuel freeze, the pension age is lowered and the minimum wage increased.
In the absence of a government, what? Mélenchon, invited into the Republican barricade against Le Pen, is demanding to be named prime minister and to implement his economic programme immediately and in full. Macron cannot allow this but may have to find space to give Mélenchon, who is toxic in or out of government. He is a rabble-rouser and there is a risk that his more violent supporters will take to the streets if they don’t get what they want.
Others suggest the formation of a purely technocratic government, like that of Mario Draghi in Italy 2021-2022, or even a minority government that would seek compromises to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis. None of this seems plausibly durable and there will inevitably be new elections. Le Pen will be able to exploit the crisis. Macron created this unnecessary situation and has resurrected an unreconstructed French left stuffed with authoritarian ideologues – one that includes an alliance with the most hard-line mosques. Moshe Sebbag, a rabbi for the Synagogue de la Victoire, tells the Times of Israel that ‘it seems France has no future for Jews.’ He advises young French Jews to leave for Israel.
Even this morning, the Parisian bubble was pretending that it wasn’t so bad. Henry Samuel reports in the Telegraph that ‘Elysée sources insist that Mr Macron’s bet to “clarify” French politics has paid off and that he will now somehow manage to cobble together a majority with “reasonable” centre-Left and centre-Right forces.’ Good luck with that magical thinking. Macron has committed the greatest political blunder of the Fifth Republic. His narcissistic and dramatic personality have sown disorder. The credibility and credit of France have been undermined by him.
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