Learning from recent history

With a UN resolution now passed, Prime Minister David Cameron has displayed diplomatic skills his critics believed he did not possess. As NATO is planning to enforce an expansive no-fly zone over Libya, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider such a mission’s aims and to learn the lessons from recent wars.

The strategic aim of the mission cannot only be to protect Libyan civilians. Framed in this way, the international community will face the same problems it did Bosnia: for instance, the Srebrenica massacre happened while a no-fly zone was already in place. A no-fly zone will not force Colonel Ghadaffi from power. As troops are not going to be deployed, it will be very difficult to force regime change unless NATO is willing to bomb Ghadaffi’s heavily-protected bunker in Tripoli, which is unlikely.

Therefore, the strategic aim should be to protect and bolster the opposition and pressure loyalist forces to the degree that a political process can begin, which eventually forces Colonel Ghadaffi and his family from power, but allows for some kind of interim power-sharing between loyalists and rebels.