How bad are the Deripaska allegations for Osborne? At the very least, climbing on board that yacht raises questions over his judgement. But, as with so many Westminster scandals, all hangs on what more is to come. Labour will gun for him as hard as they can, knowing how important he is to Tory strategy. If nothing more emerges than what’s in today’s Times, he’s okay. But if it turns out that he was part of some operation to solicit an illegal donation, he’s finished. For my part, I can’t believe he would be so stupid as to do this, or to take the view that what happens in Corfu stays in Corfu. Yet I hear reports of blind panic in CCHQ, and I have spoken to two MPs who wanted to discuss whether Hague or Clarke would be the better replacement. People are expecting fireworks.
My hunch that immense political drama about to unfold is down to a simple fact: I’m spending this week off in New York, and my holiday plans do seem to tempt the news gods. I am a finalist for this year’s Bastiat Prize and its award dinner tomorrow is one that I wouldn’t miss for anything, not even the resignation of George Osborne. Normally, I would rule out such a prospect. But I can draw you a list of my holiday plans, and their coincidence with major news events – there is an unfailing correlation, where I either miss the fun or end up tracking it from a laptop in some overseas Starbucks.
Anyway, I hope the curse of the Nelson holiday doesn’t strike and Osborne shakes this off. To lose him would be a devastating blow for Cameron and the party. That’s why you can bet Brown, Mandy and all Labour high command will be doing their utmost to destroy him.
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