The PM is looking to intensify the military campaign in Libya. Losing is not an option.
Just think about it. The US gets its man; Britain gets angry, bombs a bit and then goes home. The dictator lives on in infamy: very Clintonesque. To avoid such an ignominious end, a delegation from
Benghazi has been called to London in order to hatch a plan with Britain and her allies.
But at the same time it may be prudent for someone in government – quietly and out of sight, of course – to look at a Plan B. Not for execution now, but ready in case the time comes.
Why a Plan B? While the mission has protected Benghazi and is helping the rebels, questions are emerging about how long the UK can go on for? The operation has already cost close to half a billion pounds. And Colonel Gaddafi looks like he is staying put, propped up by fear, money, violence and sanctions-breaking neighbours.
My view remains that the Libyan dictator should leave and that the UK is right to aim for regime change. Bombing should continue and the NATO should consider establishing forward operating bases in eastern Libya at the invitation of the rebels, which would also save money. But Tony Blair bungled in Iraq because he did not plan an alternative course of action, both before and after the military operation began. David Cameron must avoid this.
Plan B would look to kick-start negotiations between Tripoli and Benghazi, which would aim at a democratic process in which Gaddafi could not stand. NATO would continue to patrol the Libyan skies and bomb Gaddafi’s forces if they attack the rebels. Meanwhile, the UK should help organise local elections in eastern Libya and add to the 50-odd diplomats and advisers already deployed. That would put pressure on the Tripoli regime.
No doubt Gaddafi would lie, renege on the negotiated deal and so on. Also, talks would probably be punctuated by bombings. But, like the Arab-Israeli conflict, it is better to have a flawed process than none.
Timing is crucial as there will only be a few moments to pivot from a military to political strategy: after the Egyptian elections and when a new head of the Arab League is appointed, either person can credibly lead a negotiation in a way the UN and the AU cannot.
None of this is for now. For the time being the PM is right: Britain and her allies need to intensify the campaign. But it is prudent to have a Plan B in one’s pocket.
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