Lies, damned lies and the EU

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[/audioplayer]It is normally in the final, frantic days of a campaign that a multitude of dubious claims are made. But when it comes to the EU referendum, this has begun before the date of the vote has even been set.

We’re told that anti-terrorism measures would be damaged by a British exit from the European Union, that migrant camps would sprout up in the garden of England and Six Nations rugby would never be the same again. The strangest claim of all isn’t Sir Charles Powell’s clairvoyant suggestion that Margaret Thatcher would vote to stay in, but David Cameron’s insistence that he would join the EU right now.

The Prime Minister’s position is odd because the ‘in’ side’s strongest arguments focus on the disruption Brexit would cause the UK. It is not clear how quickly terms could be agreed with the EU or how fast Britain could strike trade deals with other countries.

Last Friday, at a dinner in Brussels, Jeppe Tranholm-Mikkelsen, secretary general of the European Council, told me that a British exit could take five to ten years to negotiate and ratify. The terms of Article 50 suggest it would take Britain at least two years to wrestle free. There is even talk that Britain’s departure might need to be approved by -referendums in other countries. This -warning from Tranholm-Mikkelsen, one of EC president Donald Tusk’s most senior officials, is worth noting because he has long been seen as sympathetic to Britain’s concerns.

The ‘out’ campaign would counter that Britain would not invoke Article 50 until it was ready. But senior figures in the Foreign Office believe there is a danger that Article 50 could be invoked by the rest of the EU in the event of an ‘out’ vote regardless of the British government’s -position.