How many Labour welfare rebels are left?

Tonight, we will find out just how many Labour welfare rebels there really are. A vote on the second reading of the government’s reforms is expected after 7pm. Liz Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, is facing the Commons this afternoon as she tries to whittle numbers down to as few as possible.

There are some encouraging signs. Meg Hillier, the Labour veteran who sponsored the initial rebel amendment, has now withdrawn it following £3 billion in concessions. However, Rachael Maskell, a serial soft left critic, has stepped into the breach and is now putting forward her own amendment to effectively kill the Bill. Hillier boasted up to 126 names; Maskell has 35 MPs backing her. Organisers suggest more names will follow but it is still some way short of the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. Notably, the amendment raises new concerns about the changes and is backed by 138 disability groups.

Both rebels and government MPs believe that Kendall’s Bill will pass tonight. But it is noticeable that the blame game for this disaster has already begun. On LBC’s Cross Questions last night, Charlotte Nichols – who signed Hillier’s initial amendment – made a point of defending the whips’ office. She went to lengths to praise their behaviour, unlike, she suggested, certain individuals in the parliamentary machine and the political operation of Numbers 10 and 11. Expect heads to roll over this debacle at some point down the line.

For the parliamentary geeks, the question is how big the rebellion will be. Academic Philip Cowley has helpfully crunched the numbers. Tonight’s vote looks set to smash the number of 16 MPs who defied the whip during the Planning and Infrastructure Bill last month – making it the biggest rebellion of Starmer’s premiership thus far. Tony Blair’s biggest rebellion in his first year was the 47 MPs who rebelled in 1997 over Lone Parent benefit.

The minister responsible then was Harriet Harman, who ended up losing her job the following year. Her special adviser at the time? None other than Liz Kendall. She will be hoping to fare better than her old boss when it comes to reshuffle time.