What few results there have been so far suggest that UKIP has scored about a quarter of the vote and gained more seats than Labour. A ‘phenomenal performance’ says Prof John Curtice. Nigel Farage now looks like the main winner, suggesting that his party is mutating from an EU protest party into a being broader party of the working class.
The local elections have nothing to do with the European Union so there’s no rational reason that one-in-four voters would chose UKIP — unless they believed the party was addressing their concerns on wider issues. The reason that David Cameron’s referendum pledge did not shoot the UKIP fox is that Farage has adopted a broader agenda, and one he has successfully communicated to millions of voters. For years, journalists like myself have been declaring UKIP to have reached a high water mark, but its water keeps rising higher.
- UKIP came second in South Shields last night, going from zero to 24% of the vote. And twice as many votes as the Tories.
- Boston is now a UKIP town. It has taken five of the seven seats. The Tories went from six Boston seats to just one.
- This made UKIP the official opposition in Lincolnshire, having taken 16 seats across the county in total. UKIP also unseated the Tory deputy leader of Lincolnshire County Council.
- UKIP has won a seat in Dorset. The candidate, Ian Smith, didn’t think he had a chance of winning and didn’t turn up to the count.
- UKIP won nine seats in Essex, while Tories on weakest showing there since 1970s.
- And UKIP is gunning for 100 seats overall, up from seven in 2009.
I’m no supporter of UKIP — apart from anything else, I want to save our membership of the European Union by reforming it. This is a mid-term election, and strange things happen at this point in the cycle. This really could be UKIP’s high water mark. But it has become difficult to dismiss them as a party with the intellectual clout of a Mayfly — and the same life expectancy. If UKIP was playing by normal rules, it would have had the good grace to die when David Cameron adopted their referendum pledge.
So what’s next for Farage? To actually win a by-election and have an MP. James Forsyth is, as ever, the first to bring details of the cold war for Portsmouth South. And then this time next year, when local elections are held on the same day as the Euro elections, UKIP may take entire councils (like Linconshire). In 2015, they may be strong enough to change the result of the general election – and not necessarily in a good way. Stuart Wheeler tells today’s Telegraph that UKIP may have ten seats by then and have a minister in coalition. But with whom?
UKIP may well split the Tory vote and take Ed Miliband to No10. But the Labour leader should be worried – and a little ashamed – at its success yesterday. Miliband is now two years away from a general election, he should be proving his one-nation credentials and winning down south. At this stage in the last cycle, the Tories gained 12 councils and 256 councillors. It doesn’t seem, at the time of writing, that Labour will do as well this time.
UPDATE: After 32/34 councils counted, Labour have gained two seats for every one gained by UKIP. The BBC has been to Boston, now a UKIP town, to find out what happened. Here’s the clip:-
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