London in limbo: can the capital survive this crisis?

We should worry about what is happening to London. Our capital is, after all, the country’s economic powerhouse. It accounts for just under a quarter of Britain’s GDP. In fact, three of its now most deserted locations — the City, the West End and Canary Wharf — account collectively for an eighth of the nation’s output. There is a danger that short-term damage to London’s economy could become permanent unless the right steps are taken.

This was supposed to be the week when things would start returning to some sort of normality, as the government encouraged more people to go back to the office. Yet uncertainty prevails. The announcement last week that Greater Manchester and parts of Lancashire and West Yorkshire would be put under tighter restrictions with little warning has led to speculation that London could be locked down again. This would be bizarre given that cases in London are running at around 75 a day, compared with 1,073 at the peak, and that there are only 150 or so calls per day to 111 from Londoners with possible Covid symptoms, in contrast to more than 3,000 per day in late March.

Public confidence is not helped by lockdowns being openly discussed. Speculative fear can remove the spontaneity from shopping, discourage firms from investing and deter people from returning to the office. While I do believe that the lockdown in March was initially necessary, the government should now rule out another lockdown nationally or in London, given its population and economic might. To view this pandemic as a binary of health vs economics would be misguided. We now know that lockdown causes severe economic and wider health costs.

But as long as localised outbreaks are inevitable, how can we make sure London stays out of lockdown? Work I carried out with Professor Paul Ormerod of UCL in April showed that three things are essential if the virus is to be managed: testing; track and trace; and behaviours need to be different to before the crisis, including avoiding large gatherings, adhering to social distancing and wearing masks.