Look to the reshuffle to see whether Brown’s enemies have any bottle

And so we come to Election Day 2009.  But the voting itself is being overshadowed by the melodrama on Downing Street; or at least being anticipated through the prism of What It All Means for Gordon.  For any CoffeeHousers who have been out of the country for the past few days – and even those who haven’t – there’s a great summary of events by Francis Elliot in today’s Times.  But the question remains of what will happen next.  Personally, I can’t see the election results being much better than a disaster for Labour, so the pressure on Brown will certainly be ratcheted up a notch.  But will the plotters strike?  Or will Blears’ exhilarating actions be ignored rather than followed?

One of the key indicators will be the reshuffle.  Oddly, I think the more fight Brown’s enemies put up to keep their favoured positions, the less likely they are to act against the PM.