Looking ahead to the Cheltenham Festival

Tomorrow’s Bet Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle is just the sort of marathon contest in which I usually like to have a bet but, with so many of the 13 runners out of form and the going likely to be very soft, I am happy to give it a miss this time around.

Instead, I am going to turn my attention to the Cheltenham Festival, which is less than three weeks away. Unusually for me, as I tend to like the value odds often offered by horses from the smaller yards, I am going to put up two horses from the two most successful stables in Britain that have gone slightly under the radar.

The entries for the Festival handicaps were revealed this week and I am sweet on a horse from the Nicky Henderson yard. The veteran Lambourn trainer has a strong team to send to Cheltenham this year with the sublime Constitution Hill in the Unibet Champion Hurdle and enigmatic Shishkin in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup most likely to give Henderson a big-race victory.

However, it is an improving handicapper that I am keen to get onside as the Festival approaches. DODIETHEGREAT is named after the legendary Scottish rugby union forward Doddie Weir, who died from Motor Neurone Disease, aged 52, in November 2022. Racehorse owner Kenny Alexander, who was good friends with the rugby star and who owns Doddiethegreat, generously donates the horse’s winnings to the charitable foundation set up in Weir’s name.

So there are plenty of reasons, both emotional and financial, for wanting the horse to win the Coral Cup on Wednesday March 13, but I can also think of several reasons why he should win it too.

To start with, Doddiethegreat ran an excellent race in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury earlier this month when a staying on fourth to Iberico Lord. There is no doubt that the Henderson horse will be better suited to the 2 miles 5 furlongs of the Coral Cup – indeed, other than to protect his handicap mark for a big pot, it is difficult to see why he has been running over two miles this season.

When Doddiethegreat was upped to 2 miles 5 furlongs for his first run over hurdles in November 2021, he won a novice race at Kempton in a canter. Henderson has confirmed the Coral Cup is the target for Doddiethegreat, his only Festival entry, but since the gelding is so fragile – an eight-year-old with just six runs under his belt – make sure you back him NRNB (Non Runner No Bet).

Henderson, in his Festival stable tour for the Racing Post earlier this week, made no attempt to disguise that his horse will be better stepped up in trip: ‘Doddiethegreat’s run in the Betfair was pretty solid, bearing in mind that going into it we were well aware he wanted another half-mile. He was flying home in fourth, could have been third, and the Coral Cup looks like an ideal test for him.’ Back Doddiethegreat each way at 12-1 NRNB with bet365, paying five places. Sadly, off a rating of 132, he is not certain to make the cut for the race but if that is the case, your stake will, of course, be returned.

I also can’t let BRAVEMANSGAME go unbacked at a big price for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. His trainer, Paul Nicholls, who knows all about training Gold Cup winners, retains plenty of faith in his horse, who was second in this race last year and has been runner-up in all three starts this season too.

Bravemansgame is highly unlikely to beat an on-form Galopin Des Champs come the last day of the Festival on 15 March. However, particularly if the ground is not too soft, he has every chance of beating the rest of the field even if the 3 miles 2 furlongs of the race stretches his stamina to the limit.

If Galopin Des Champs has a mishap or an off-day, Bravemansgame is perfectly capable of winning the race. Back him each way at 20-1 NRNB with bet365, paying three places. I would be surprised if he goes off at that big a price on the day.

As regular readers will know, I am a big fan of Welsh trainer Evan Williams and, although he does not have as many quality ‘Saturday horses’ as in recent seasons, he always knows how to train one of his inmates for a big prize.

I am convinced that the best days of LIBBERTY HUNTER stil lie ahead and I am hoping Williams targets him at the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup on day two of the Festival (13 March). If so, he is likely to be the handler’s only runner at the big Cheltenham showpiece this season.

Libberty Hunter, an eight-year-old gelding, has looked really impressive winning his last two starts at Cheltenham and Wincanton. His official rating of 139 remains very fair but he might just be kept back for Aintree rather than sent to Cheltenham so, once again, only bet on him with a bookmaker offering NRNB. The best each way price is 12-1 NRNB, five places, offered by bet365, SkyBet, William Hill and BetVictor so snap that up now.

I was very happy with the weights allocated on Tuesday to my three tips for the Randox Grand National so here’s hoping one of Vanillier, Mahler Mission or Panda Boy comes good on 13 April. They have all significantly contracted in price in recent weeks or even days. Panda Boy still need 19 horses to come out of the race to make the cut for the National but that is very likely to happen, so it’s now just a case of hoping that all three avoid a training setback over the next two months.

Pending:

1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, five places.

1 point each way Doddiethegreat at 12-1 for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, five places.

1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

Settled bets from last weekend:

1 point each way Bad at 7-1 in the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 6 places. 2^nd. + 0.4 points.

1 point each way Credo at 14-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way My Silver Lining at 6-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying 1/5^th odds, 4 places. 2^nd. + 0.2 points.

1 point each way Jetara at 14-1 NRNB for Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 1.81 points.

2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).