James Kirkup James Kirkup

Lurking in the Budget is a problem much bigger and badder than Brexit

My Budget reaction is mostly: Meh. By that, I mean this won’t really change the weather, though it might just gee up some despondent Tories, who are cheered by the Stamp Duty cut regardless of what the OBR and others have to say about it (in short, it’ll push up prices and only really help people who were already close to buying; it does nothing for the people for whom home-ownership really is a distant dream.)

Perhaps the best encapsulation of this was offered to me recently by a ministerial friend who is not, let us say, ordinarily upbeat about the May Government and its prospects.  This afternoon, this governmental gloomster was rather chipper, assuring me: ‘This is good stuff. Real people will like it, whatever miserable geeks like you say.’  That’s probably true, too.

And who knows? Maybe a solid Budget with a decent retail offer will lead to a modest poll bump and cause some Tory optimists to start thinking: ‘You know what, despite everything, we’re still polling 40 percent and Jeremy Bloody Corbyn isn’t pulling away.  We can do this.  We can turn this around.’ Maybe.

If so, expect the next story from the village to be about the reshuffle, where a resurgent [sic] Theresa May will be urged to be bold and shake things up, bringing in the new talent and setting the Tories on course for an improbable election win in 2022, presumably under new leadership.  Perhaps she could transform herself from a John Major or IDS figure into Michael Howard, the stable hand on the tiller who saw the party through choppy waters and handed the captaincy over to a younger generation of winners. Perhaps.

That’s all wild speculation, of course, and my money is really on this Budget not being transformative of anything at all. 

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