John Keiger John Keiger

Macron’s battle against the forces of French anarchy

Photo by THEO LEGENDRE/AFP via Getty Images

This week France announced a €100 billion (£89 billion) stimulus package equivalent to 4 per cent of GDP over two years. It might seem churlish to ask why the French government has put so much money on the table. To save the French economy, of course. But there’s a graver concern in France that has lately come to the fore.

But first, some context to the ‘France Revival’ stimulus programme. It adds to the most generous furlough scheme of any developed economy, which in the spring was already calculated to push France’s debt to GDP ratio over 121 per cent, according to France’s budget statistics. The rationale is that France’s economy is predicted to take one of the biggest hits from the pandemic – after that of the UK – and consequently Macron should do ‘whatever it takes’. 

Deep feelings of insecurity, a loss of identity and a tradition of rebellion all make for a powerful cocktail

The package is also designed to save Macron in the presidential re-election race 18 months hence. The latest Ifop poll saw his popularity stuck at 36 per cent, while 63 per cent are unhappy with his performance. The ‘Revival’ package also acts as camouflage for getting through some of the labour and pension reforms that provoked so much protest and unrest before Covid. And here we come to the nub of the problem that politicians and pundits fear could be a consequence of Covid by mid-winter: large scale social unrest, even a breakdown of social cohesion.

This sounds dramatic, but the prospect of massive structural unemployment resulting from the economic consequences of Covid is viewed with greater trepidation in France than in any equivalent developed economy. Why is that? Because France has lived with structural unemployment of around 10 per cent for nearly two decades – a fact that has deteriorated the social fabric of.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

John Keiger
Written by
John Keiger

Professor John Keiger is the former research director of the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge.

Topics in this article

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in